The Monday After

Only 351 days to the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013. [Seems a long way away doesn't it?].

Anyway as Loreen starts to climb up through the charts across Europe it's time to start looking at what happened last night and who came where. 

As you just might already know Sweden won the contest, with 372 points and gaining the most number of 12 points ever [18 sets]. Whether you liked the song or not I think that this is a serious win and one that helps the contest as whole. It shows that the best song can win the contest regardless of where it is geographically. Most of all Sweden's is a huge one for fans of the contest.

Russia came second on Saturday, the grannies proving that age is no barrier to success. [Despite what Engelbert Humperdinck might think]. Serbia came third Zeljko proving that a safe Balkan ballad can bring you some success, especially when there isn't many other Balkan ballads in the competition. Azerbaijan came fourth which is a very respectable for a host country and suggests that Azerbaijan will still be a force to be reckoned with in future contests. Albania came fifth, which might raise a couple of eyebrows, but I did say that this would do a bit better than expected. It shows that a technically good song, combined with an outstanding vocal performance can do well in the contest.

Estonia came sixth which was as surprising as when they came sixth in 2009. Definitely Ott deserved his placing, but this was a big surprise. Turkey came seventh which, I do believe was a fair placing for them. Then three of the big 5 came Germany - Roman Lob doing about as well as can be expected. Italy - I'm not sure how Nina Zilli might feel about her placing but I felt it was a bit below where I'd put the song. Spain came tenth, their best result in since 2004, which they should be pleased with. Personally speaking, Spain was the standout performance of the evening, it was the song I voted for and I think it deserved a high place than it got.

Looking down at the bottom of the table, Norway came last [again] which was a big surprise but given that Loreen most likely hoovered up votes from around Europe this is understandable. UK and Engelbert Humperdinck came second last with just 12 points which was a disappointing results for The Hump. I think the running order really went against the UK though. Also for the second year running the UK did a poor jury final performance. This really will raise some questions in the BBC and I also intend to have a post on the UK over the summer.

Hungary, despite being well tipped to come last didn't, which might be seen as a success. Denmark came 23rd which was disappointing for Soluna Samay. I think she did a wonderful song and full credit to her for that. France came 22nd, showing that touring around Europe doesn't really help your chances. Malta came 21st, no big surprises there. Iceland and Ireland both should be disappointed with their results, Ireland especially, where Jedward were hotly tipped to do well.

The only other real surprise was that Greece fell out of the top 10 for the first time since 2003. This might mean that one of the most consistent Eurovision countries may be falling, but also I don't think that the song deserved to come much higher.

I'll have more  analysis of the results during this week.

Congradulations To Sweden

Well that was all a bit surprising wasn't it? Sweden wins the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. Loreen and her song incredible song Euphoria won tonights vote amassing a massive 372 points. 


While this result may not be surprising the remaining top 5 were quite a surprise. In fact they were very close to how the bookies had expected. Russia came second, Serbia third, Azerbaijan fourth and Albania fifth [they're best result yet]. There were no massive records broken but there is quite a lot to be analysed.

The big surprise tonight was the low scoring of the rest of Scandinavia and the UK and Ireland. I haven't seen a full score table yet and once I've had time to process these I'll be better able to discuss the overall  result.

In the meantime, and until Sweden 2013 I wish you all the very best.

Voting Order

The voting order was announced over on eurovision.tv earlier this afternoon. Looking briefly over them it would appear that a western European country is being held back as 12 western countries are going to announce their votes in places 25-35. Balkan countries are generally announcing their votes earlier.

Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th


Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th


Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th


Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th


Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th


Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th


Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th


Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th


Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th


Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th


Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th


Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th


Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th


Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th


Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th


Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th


Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th


Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th


Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th


Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th


FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th


Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th


Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th


Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th


So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:

1. Sweden

2. Italy

3. Turkey

4. Ireland

5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

My Favourites!

After a minimum of two months listening to all of these songs suddenly you have to consider all of them together and now that I have seen them all performed live we can start to see just which songs are in my Top 10 for 2012.

This year as with any is difficult to work out exactly which are my favourites. But here we go, (with reasons why). Ireland is always excluded from my favourites due to bias towards our entry which I think you should all vote for and bring the contest to Dublin. As you can see a tiny amount of bias is coming through. So in no particular order my top 10 are:


Sweden - Well it's been one of my favourites since it was picked. I just love this and I think it would be a deserving winner. I'm not convinced that the song was performed as well as it could have been in the semi-final but maybe that's me being picky though. 


Estonia - Ott may not have the best song in the competition but his vocal performance is strong. It is a great relaxing song and came across well in the semi-final. I think this did well in the semi and could score well off the juries in the final.


Romania - Since the rehearsals started I have gone from thinking that this is OK to thinking that it is fairly flat to being one of the most fun entries this year. The song comes across really well and this is hugely thanks to a strong performance from Mandinga. 


UK - Despite some reservations about Engelbert going to Eurovision for the UK I still think that the song he as produced is really really good and is a great one to listen to. Engelbert has come up well in the rehearsals and it should be good on the night.

Spain - Whatever people might say about Spain I think that this is just an outstanding song. It's not a great one for the MP3 player but it is a truely amazing song live. I know how the Spanish fans feel about this entry and I'm not quite sure that it is a winner, but it is a strong song. 

Italy - Of course as second/third/fouth [depends on the bookmaker] favourites they have a really strong song and a really good singer to pull it off. Italy did well last but I don't expect that they will break last years results.  
Largely because it's to safe to do really well. It doesn't have the risk of Raphael last year.


Russia - One of the most discussed songs this year had fallen in my estimation during the run up to the rehearsals. However on Tuesday night I though that this was stunning. Not my favourite and I don't think that it is a winner but I still think that it has hit potential. 


Denmark - I accept that not everyone loves this song. Despite the cute and cuddly image this has come through a seriously tough DMGP and continues to divide fans. The jury rehearsal of this was strong. I don't think it is a winner but it isn't going to come last. Personally it was my favourite in the first semi-final, it has fallen a bit since then but it still is really great. 


Iceland - I've had a soft spot for this song as have many fans. I'm not convinced that this is as good as some people make out based on the semi-final performance and YouTube numbers. I recognise it as a really great song and I acknowledge that.


Albania - This is another song that was simply outstanding in the semi-final. It's a simple performance of a really complex song. Well done Albania.


You're still reading? Great. You skipped down here without reading the above? That's not so good but I'll survive. So I would place these songs in the following order.

12. Sweden

10. Albania

8. UK

7. Italy

6. Spain

5. Iceland

4. Denmark

3. Romania

2. Estonia

1. Russia

I'll put up real predictions either tonight or tomorrow morning once the jury final is over.

A Couple Of Surprising Results

While the press gather to fire up live streams and blogs I shall take a couple of moments to discuss the semi-final results. So here is a couple of small points on the contest.

The Qualifiers
Just in case you've forgotten the qualifiers were (In Random Order):

1. Lithuania

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina 

3. Serbia

4. Ukraine

5. Sweden

6. FYR Macedonia

7. Norway

8. Estonia

9. Malta

10. Turkey

The main surprises were the qualification of Lithuania, B+H, Malta and to a lesser extent FYR Macedonia. The biggest losers were Slovenia and Portugal in my opinion. While the names are surprising about 15 songs were in the mix to qualify, no one shocking came out though. My predictions were a bit out - I only got 7/10. 

The Interval Act
I thought that the interval act definitely one of the best we've seen until Ell & Nikki proved that even they thought that their winning song was boring so just sung Waterloo [a bit out of tune] just to confuse people. It was pure car crash television.

Presenters
Presenters were as good as they were in Semi-Final 1. Which was pretty poor.

The Finalists
Finalists are from all over Europe but they break down as follows. 3 Balkans, 2 Baltic, 2 Scandinavia, Turkey, Malta and Ukraine. Which is pretty diverse. The importance of the running order was clearly shown.  Despite predictions of the 3-5 from the first half and 5-7 from the second half being broken it wasn't and the break down was four from the first half and six from the second.


The Draw will take place in the press conference which is currently ongoing.

The Draw 
The positions drawn is as follows:

Lithuania - #4

B+H - #5

Serbia - #24

Ukraine - #25
Sweden - #17
Macedonia - #22
Norway - #12
Estonia - #11
Malta - #21
Turkey - #18

This is a very interesting draw. I'll be writing about this in more detail over the next couple of hours and days but by this time Saturday. 

Semi-Final 2: The Qualifiers

Predictions Time!

Semi-Final 2 is definitively the better one musically but with 5 Balkan countries, two from Scandinavia and two from the Baltics this becomes a hard one to predict. Looking at my workings theres probably 15 songs that could make the final it is just a question of who. So in the order I expect them to score here are my predictions:

1. Sweden

2. Serbia

3. Estonia

4. Norway

5. Turkey

6. Ukraine

7. Georgia

8. Slovenia

9. Bosnia & Herzegovina

10. Portugal

Just Missing Out

11. Macedonia

I'll try to do as much coverage as I can but in the morning I have my driving test so lets hope that I manage to pass this time.