Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th


Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th


Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th


Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th


Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th


Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th


Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th


Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th


Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th


Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th


Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th


Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th


Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th


Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th


Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th


Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th


Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th


Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th


Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th


Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th


FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th


Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th


Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th


Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th


So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:

1. Sweden

2. Italy

3. Turkey

4. Ireland

5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

My Favourites!

After a minimum of two months listening to all of these songs suddenly you have to consider all of them together and now that I have seen them all performed live we can start to see just which songs are in my Top 10 for 2012.

This year as with any is difficult to work out exactly which are my favourites. But here we go, (with reasons why). Ireland is always excluded from my favourites due to bias towards our entry which I think you should all vote for and bring the contest to Dublin. As you can see a tiny amount of bias is coming through. So in no particular order my top 10 are:


Sweden - Well it's been one of my favourites since it was picked. I just love this and I think it would be a deserving winner. I'm not convinced that the song was performed as well as it could have been in the semi-final but maybe that's me being picky though. 


Estonia - Ott may not have the best song in the competition but his vocal performance is strong. It is a great relaxing song and came across well in the semi-final. I think this did well in the semi and could score well off the juries in the final.


Romania - Since the rehearsals started I have gone from thinking that this is OK to thinking that it is fairly flat to being one of the most fun entries this year. The song comes across really well and this is hugely thanks to a strong performance from Mandinga. 


UK - Despite some reservations about Engelbert going to Eurovision for the UK I still think that the song he as produced is really really good and is a great one to listen to. Engelbert has come up well in the rehearsals and it should be good on the night.

Spain - Whatever people might say about Spain I think that this is just an outstanding song. It's not a great one for the MP3 player but it is a truely amazing song live. I know how the Spanish fans feel about this entry and I'm not quite sure that it is a winner, but it is a strong song. 

Italy - Of course as second/third/fouth [depends on the bookmaker] favourites they have a really strong song and a really good singer to pull it off. Italy did well last but I don't expect that they will break last years results.  
Largely because it's to safe to do really well. It doesn't have the risk of Raphael last year.


Russia - One of the most discussed songs this year had fallen in my estimation during the run up to the rehearsals. However on Tuesday night I though that this was stunning. Not my favourite and I don't think that it is a winner but I still think that it has hit potential. 


Denmark - I accept that not everyone loves this song. Despite the cute and cuddly image this has come through a seriously tough DMGP and continues to divide fans. The jury rehearsal of this was strong. I don't think it is a winner but it isn't going to come last. Personally it was my favourite in the first semi-final, it has fallen a bit since then but it still is really great. 


Iceland - I've had a soft spot for this song as have many fans. I'm not convinced that this is as good as some people make out based on the semi-final performance and YouTube numbers. I recognise it as a really great song and I acknowledge that.


Albania - This is another song that was simply outstanding in the semi-final. It's a simple performance of a really complex song. Well done Albania.


You're still reading? Great. You skipped down here without reading the above? That's not so good but I'll survive. So I would place these songs in the following order.

12. Sweden

10. Albania

8. UK

7. Italy

6. Spain

5. Iceland

4. Denmark

3. Romania

2. Estonia

1. Russia

I'll put up real predictions either tonight or tomorrow morning once the jury final is over.

A Couple Of Surprising Results

While the press gather to fire up live streams and blogs I shall take a couple of moments to discuss the semi-final results. So here is a couple of small points on the contest.

The Qualifiers
Just in case you've forgotten the qualifiers were (In Random Order):

1. Lithuania

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina 

3. Serbia

4. Ukraine

5. Sweden

6. FYR Macedonia

7. Norway

8. Estonia

9. Malta

10. Turkey

The main surprises were the qualification of Lithuania, B+H, Malta and to a lesser extent FYR Macedonia. The biggest losers were Slovenia and Portugal in my opinion. While the names are surprising about 15 songs were in the mix to qualify, no one shocking came out though. My predictions were a bit out - I only got 7/10. 

The Interval Act
I thought that the interval act definitely one of the best we've seen until Ell & Nikki proved that even they thought that their winning song was boring so just sung Waterloo [a bit out of tune] just to confuse people. It was pure car crash television.

Presenters
Presenters were as good as they were in Semi-Final 1. Which was pretty poor.

The Finalists
Finalists are from all over Europe but they break down as follows. 3 Balkans, 2 Baltic, 2 Scandinavia, Turkey, Malta and Ukraine. Which is pretty diverse. The importance of the running order was clearly shown.  Despite predictions of the 3-5 from the first half and 5-7 from the second half being broken it wasn't and the break down was four from the first half and six from the second.


The Draw will take place in the press conference which is currently ongoing.

The Draw 
The positions drawn is as follows:

Lithuania - #4

B+H - #5

Serbia - #24

Ukraine - #25
Sweden - #17
Macedonia - #22
Norway - #12
Estonia - #11
Malta - #21
Turkey - #18

This is a very interesting draw. I'll be writing about this in more detail over the next couple of hours and days but by this time Saturday. 

OMG That Was Just A Bit Close!

So tonight from the Crystal Hall the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest was held. Ten Qualifiers made it through to the final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2012. They are (in order revealed).

1. Romania

2. Moldova

3. Iceland

4. Hungary 

5. Denmark

6. Albania

7. Cyprus

8. Greece

9. Russia

10. Ireland

This means that Montenegro, Latvia, Switzerland, Belgium, Israel, Finland, Austria and San Marino. 

This blog post will be updated as more information comes in and I compose my thoughts. We are awaiting the winners press conference and the draw for the final running order.

Presenters:
The presenters tonight were pretty poor and probably gave the lowest standard of presenting in recent years.

No Surprises: 
Russia, Ireland and Romania were all seen as sure qualifiers. I was impressed with Russia's performance but please pardon my bias, Ireland had a really strong performance but I would say that Jedward did a really good performance.

Denmark and Iceland were also both seen as qualifiers. Denmark won got my vote simply because as I had said before, Denmark still is a stand out entry for me. Iceland was my second favourite. I was somewhat less impressed with the general performance on actually on my TV but I was still very happy with the overall package.

Albania was a little more surprising than the above entries. I've previously mentioned that I suspect that they won the jury vote being vocally really really strong. Greece was a not surprise, though it would be difficult to see them not making the final no matter what they send.

Cyprus was surprising for me, as I didn't expect that both Cyprus and Greece would get through given the similarity of their songs, Ivi also had a fairly poor jury rehearsal. But the song did look good on stage and I was impressed. Moldova though was seen as a bit of an outsider for many but some [like me] did see it as a qualifier. It had a strong vocal for the song so I suspect that it did well with both the jury and the public as it was a lot of fun.

The big surprise really was Hungary, which was the point where I started to worry about our chances. They're song really did nothing for me during the show.

The Draw
The starting positions of each of the following countries is as follows:

Romania - #14

Moldova - #26

Iceland - #7

Hungary - #2

Denmark - #15

Albania - #3

Cyprus - #8

Greece - #16

Russia - #6

Ireland - #23

Running Order Analysis

So far this is shaping up to be an interesting draw. The show will have a dull enough start with UK, Hungary and Albania opening. The UK should be happy enough with this. Hungary will struggle to survive in slot number two - the death slot. So far the songs in the middle of the show should complement each other fairly well.  Azerbaijan is in slot 13 then Romania in #14, Denmark in slot #15 and Greece in slot #16. Cyprus might not be over happy with the draw and I suspect that they will be in the 20th-26th position in the final. Particularly as it is followed by France and Italy, even though Ivi's song is different to Cyprus I still think it is not a good draw for them. Russia also won't be too pleased with their draw but at they are followed by Iceland who will be a complete change from the Russian grannies. 

Ireland should be very pleased with their draw, now while some have jumped the gun just a little, I would not say that this is a pretty good omen for Ireland and they should be able to launch a successful entry from this position. Really if we were going to do very well a couple more things [such as the qualifiers from semi-final 2] will impact on that. We just don't have the information yet. Probability though would say that it is unlikely that Ireland will get all of these favorable conditions together. If you want more info on the importance of the running order we did a theoretical paper earlier this year which can be found here. 

And one more thing.....

My family who was watching Eurovision with me really liked the clip played of the German entry. I think this could be a dark horse but until Thursday evening I'm still going with Sweden as the most likely winner.

Eurovision Semi-Final 1 - For Non Eurovision Super-fans

So today sees the first real tangible signs of Eurovision 2012 with the first live show. While most of my posts are aimed at fans of the contest who follow ESC either all year round or for the national final seasons this one is aimed that those for whom Eurovision is only an annual event.

What's on tonight?
Tonight is the first semi-final, 18 countries from around Europe will compete for 10 spaces in the final, which will contain ten songs from semi-final 1, ten for semi-final 2 and six automatic qualifiers. Jedward will be competing for Ireland tonight. The second semi-final is on Thursday and the final is on Saturday.

Who votes tonight?
A 50/50 combination of expert jury votes and public televotes will decide the ten qualifiers.

What can we expect from juries?
Juries tend to be more conservative in their voting and do support countries that have stronger vocal performances. However they also do recognize a strong song when they see it.

When do Juries vote?
Contrary to what many people believe the juries vote based on the video tapes of the second rehearsal, which is done 24 hours in advance of the final. Today juries across Europe will decide their votes in the morning/early afternoon of the main event.


Does the winner of the semi-final matter?
The winner of the semi-final is not announced until after the final. While a song that wants to win Eurovision probably should win tonight, many songs that have won Eurovision recently came second or even third in their semi-final. The last person to win the semi-final and the final was Alexander Rybak [Norway] in 2009. Last year Greece won their semi-final but only came seventh overall. So no, winning is not essential tonight.

What performances should I be looking forward to tonight?
Montenegro have brought us one of the most bizarre songs ever to grace the stage. The song is called Euro-Nuero and is actually a massive anti-EU song. But most will not understand it, however you also can look forward to the Euro-Nuero monetary break dance.

For those who actually believe that Eurovision can actually produce a couple of hits Iceland is definitely one to watch. Greta Sálome & Jonsi have a big dramatic Icelandic ballad.

Things might seem to be getting a little boring but Romania are sixth up and should fix that with their song "Zaleilah". Hetrosexual males may want to watch for their lead singer.

San Marino have a really catchy but strange song about Social Networks. Once she starts talking about Cybersex you might want to note that she is 37.

Russia have the so called "Russian Grannies" coming to perform their song Party For Everybody. These are performers of various ages ranging from 47-76. They are really cute and definitely worth a watch.  They are one of the favourites to win the whole contest.

Austria have sent their song Woki Mit Deim Popo [shake your ass] which is really entertaining.

Finally Ireland have Jedward and their massive fountain to try and convince Europe to vote for them. Jedward are widely seen as likely qualifiers tonight.

What A Week!

So as the technical rehearsals draw to a close we now have had a really fun week so I'm going to use this post to look back on that as well as to tell you my top 10 for semi-final 1 and to look to the week ahead.

Rehearsals Week 2012
Sunday (last week) saw the beginning of the rehearsals with the first half of semi-final 1 starting. The big winners here were Iceland and Romania who both went from being likely to definite qualifiers. Belgium also perked themselves up as possible qualifiers. There was one car crash which was Greece who raised a couple of eyebrows with their performance, particularly vocals.

Monday saw people actually consider that there was a mild chance that San Marino could qualify. Denmark and Russia both gave us performances that leads me to believe either could win the first semi-final. Moldova seems to have come across well on stage and Pasha showed us he had some vocals. Ireland managed to underwhelm everyone but everyone still thinks that it is sailing through to the final. Austria was Monday's car crash.

Tuesday saw the rise of Macedonia and the fall of Bulgaria but was by far the dullest day we had.

Wednesday was Sweden's day as their march to victory began. Loreen certainly has her critic's though and there is certainly an anti-Sweden vibe coming through from Baku. It's in many blogs but it seems especially prevalent in the press reports from Baku. Other highlights included Norway's off key rehearsal [well if your like me and don't like Tooji]. Bosina & Herzegovina also fell in many peoples expectations.

Thursday and Friday saw second rehearsals begin. Austria and b redeemed themselves a little, and Ireland got the fountain working. Russia proved that everyone still loves the Grannies and Greece showed they can make marginal improvements to a vocal performance.

Saturday and Sunday saw Sweden take to the stage and finally nail the performance [depending on whether you think she mumbles the song or not]. Norway also managed to get the vocal performance back together. The Big 5 and Azerbaijan also showed us that they are able to take the lead at Eurovision. Italy showed they might not have cared about Eurovision but that they can still do there best to try to win it. Italy now in moved as a strong favourite, probably second to Loreen. Germany showed that Stefan Raab can still produce a good entry and Germany has exceeded expectations to become one of the potential winners of the contest. The UK left us all a bit worried after the first rehearsal but we all calmed down a bit after the second rehearsal. Clearly Engelbert can pull this off live.

My Top 10 [Semi-Final 1]
So that was rehearsal week, but how do the songs stand now? Well I will publish my thoughts on the semi-final 1 qualifiers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning after I get reports for the dress rehearsals and more importantly the jury final. But for now my Top 10 favourites [and my votes are]:

• 12 points - Denmark
• 10 points - Iceland 
• 8 points - Finland
• 7 points - Austria
• 6 points - Romania 
• 5 points - Russia
• 4 points - Belgium
• 3 points - Albania 
• 2 points - San Marino 
• 1 point - Greece

So that's my Top 10 I expect some of you might disagree with it but unfortunately you cannot change my music tastes.

Tomorrow

Though the will be no live shows tomorrow, it is an important day. At 3pm CET the first full run through of the dress rehearsal will begin and, more importantly, at 9pm CET tomorrow evening the jury final will take place. I will have a blog post assessing what happened in that. See you all tomorrow.

Rehearsals: Day 6: Friday: Second Rehearsals

Once again we are cutting through songs at speed today so we'll keep this fairly brief. Today we have the second part of semi-final one and the songs from semi-final two that we heard on Tuesday.

Russia - Nothing huge has changed, but I've heard that they brought meat pies for the press today. Apparently one of the grannies was off key but all in all this is doing well. People (the press) really seem to love this.

Hungary - It hasn't changed much since the first rehearsal. It seems a little messy on stage but all in all this is shaping up to be a little mediocre.

Austria - After a very disappointing rehearsal on Monday, this is shaping up to be a great performance on account of today's rehearsal. According to those in Baku the camera work has greatly improved. As I have previously mentioned this really needs to be live with a crowd to make it stand out.

Moldova - This was a stand out entry in the first rehearsals and today they seem to have been able to hold that high standard. This is probably going to qualify but being sandwiched between the Trackshittaz and Jedward won't make that easy.

Ireland - Vocally today saw an improvement and more importantly the fountain is now going up to the full height. People are talking about Jedward jumping into it and I think that is definitely going to be the case, if you look at the rehearsal video Jedward's dancing does seem to get very disjointed towards the end. i.e. something is going to happen here and they're just filling in these spots with some dancing until they do it live.

Serbia - Somewhat better than the first rehearsal. No big changes to report though.

Macedonia - this song is dividing people but the performance is good enough to unite them again. This is an on the fence qualifier but today the performance was as good as ever.

Netherlands - This is a very joyful entry and has improved a lot since the first rehearsal, this is going to be a contender to qualify. The blue dress is not the most suitable particularly when she is wear the American Indian headdress.

Malta - Everything seems to be working well on stage but despite what the Eurovision press are saying I don't think of this as a qualifier. Once again the shadows in a background are really effective and should draw a few extra people into the performance.

Belarus - Belarus have got this performance down to a fine art and everything is now working well. The movements of the guitarists is really interesting and looks pretty cool even on the rehearsal tapes.

Portugal - This has really improved since the last rehearsal but it could still struggle to qualify. The dress that Filipa wore today might not be her one for the semi-final [I'd go back to the red one from the national final].

Ukraine - Since the first rehearsal Ukraine have done their best to change the performance and it does look a lot less messy. The dancers are being used less and I believe that the whole think looks well on stage, maybe with the exception of the way they use the four screens at the end.

Bulgaria - This has been a bit disappointing since the start. Without a doubt Sofia is going to be vocally very strong. But still this is all that is working in this entry. The backdrop is more likely to cause epileptic fits than votes at this stage.

Reaction To Rehearsals: Day 2: Part 2 Russia - Ireland

So unfortunately due to other commitments I missed most of the last ten hours meaning that I have missed a lot of rehearsal time. Anyhow here is a quick look at the last five rehearsals which I managed to miss.

Russia - Rehearsal Video
This has been flagged as one of the most interesting performances to watch in this years contest. Personally I never had put Russia down as a potential winner but after today's performance this has come roaring into the competition [albeit on a Zimmer frame]. This was vocally spot on and the performance is effective but still fairly simple relatively speaking.

Hungary - Rehearsal Video
Hungary today have produced a credible vocal performance which was a huge concern in the national final. The general staging is petty good but at the same time I think that this might be a bit dull to qualify.

Austria - Rehearsal Video
This was very much as expected. For me this is one of the strongest songs in the contest this year but many people are somewhat disappointed with the general the rehearsals today. They feel that the staging is too messy for the song. I really do not agree with them but I am disappointed with the lack of a tractor onstage. I think that one of Trackshittaz strengths is that they are not you common or garden rap duo and I think they should play that up a bit.

Moldova - Rehearsal Video
Moldova had been in doubt in up until today's rehearsal as being unfortunately sandwiched between Austria and Ireland in what would have to be the maddest end to a semi-final yet. But today Moldova really is standing up vocally and in general the song is looking like a very strong one in this semi-final.

Ireland - Rehearsal Video 
Ireland, well their is less to talk about than I had hoped but all the same this is still working really well onstage but I am going to join many other bloggers in saying that this needs something extra onstage to really lift it. Jedward are about as good as they can be vocally, however there appear to have been some mixing problems with the backing vocals. All the same though Ireland look like near certain qualifiers at this point in time.

My Thoughts On Our Own Entry

We have just a small number of entries left to review for Eurovision 2012. This means though that we have come  my own country, home to green hills and leprechauns and Jedward. I might say though that despite all I say here I am not a real Jedward fan, I'm the bog standard hetrosexual Irish male (think farming type). But I do love it when Jedward come to Eurovision.....

Once again Ireland has decided to send the dynamic duo/the Haribo boys to Eurovision. Having been one of the most successful acts that Ireland has sent to the contest in the past ten years as well as the extra revenue that it  brought in for RTÉ it was decided that Jedward should return to the contest. Surprisingly Ireland held a national final which in retrospect seemed completely unnecessary, as many serious Irish acts declared from the outset that they were not going to go up against Jedward.

Jedward's song Waterline, is a very interesting one. More because it is not exactly the style that we have come to expect from Jedward. This is a far cry from Lipstick. Equally though I have argued for them since well before January and I have no interest in stopping now. The song Waterline may not have played as well with Eurovision fans as may be expected. I think this song is far more what we would expect from something like One Direction or those other Boybands that I know absolutely nothing about. (I really mean that). I think though that Jedwards song last year did require a little listening and may have been a bit to hard to get into on the first go. Waterline is much better at catering for this. It probably will attract votes from non-Jedward fans too.

I really cannot tell how this will play with the juries. Last year Jedward bet off stiff competition to come 6th with the juries. It is difficult to fully understand what it is about Jedward that got them such a score and though it is impressive, I'm not entirely sure as to how they will repeat that. The other problem is that I'm slightly unnerved by the fact both of my parents saw it on the Late Late Show last Friday and they both thought that it was a good song. While this may sound like a good thing my parents are both getting on in their lives and really the music that they are into is not Jedwards music.

Having said all that all I am saying is I don't think that this is my absolute favourite in the contest this year and I also do not think that it is a perfect entry. Like entries it has faults. However these faults should be somewhat offset by the great running position that Ireland got in this years contest. Last is a great place to be singing from.

Verdict: I could go on and on but I am sure that I will have a lot more to say about Jedward this evening after they have their rehearsals and I see how they are going on stage. Personally speaking Jedward at Eurovision are a guilty pleasure for me. They are almost disestablishmentratrian in the way they roll through Eurovision and I think they are excellent ambassadors for Ireland. The very best of luck to them.

Grade:  As it is my own country I will not given them a grade.

Another Look At The Betting Odds

In the last two weeks we have looked at the odds for Eurovision 2012 in the semi-finals but today we will now look at the odds overall. I'm using PaddyPower for this because they are fairly large (and accurate) and oddschecker is not always accurate. 

Unsurprisingly Sweden is up front by a long chalk. 2.25/1 is the odds, I'm holding out til rehersals until I put a bet on Sweden as I suspect the odds will start to widen at that point. In second are Russia and Italy on 7/1, which is more like the kind of odds I'd expect at this point of the year. I think both of these entries are risky and could conceivably drop much lower than this on the night. They'll still be on the left of the scoreboard though. Serbia is a far safer bet, and aside from Sweden the only country that I am pretty sure will be in the top 10. PaddyPower allows you to bet each way on four places. I'm not sure that Serbia will be one of these. 

Then we move out a little to 14/1 in here we have: Denmark, UK and Ireland. There can be little surprise that Ireland is doing well with an Irish bookmaker. Denmark is about right at 14/1, I think they might not break last years 5th place but top 10 is well within the reach of Soluna Samay. The UK might be a little overhyped given the risk could be associated with Engelbert's performance but also [far more importantly], the UK has a fairly poor running order position.

Next we come to Spain on 18/1 which is no surprise given that Pastora Soler is an excellent performer with a pretty strong song. I actually think that the odds are a poor reflection of this song, I don't expect that it will rip forward into the top 3, but given the songs strength and good running order, I'd say that top 10 should be with in reach. At 20/1 is Germany, which I cannot see making the Top 10 let alone winning and Turkey. Turkey is interesting because reports from Netherlands Eurovision party were not good, but I will await further reports from Baku before I decide what to make of it.

Iceland is at 22/1, which some might argue is a good bet, then Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Norway are at 25/1. Norway might also be a good bet, Romania is pretty accurate but Greece and Cyprus look a bit a ahead of themselves, particularly Cyprus. Then there is a substantial gap to Azerbaijan at 40/1. To be honest it's a poor song but Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan and they will leave a mark on the scoreboard no matter what. Being the hosts will also help. Then at 50/1 are Slovenia, Estonia and Netherlands. Netherlands are the odd men out here. I think this might be caused by a couple of fans putting on money but we shall see.

I shall refrain from going beyond here as to do so would be pointless, suffice to say I don't think that the others have much of a fighting chance.

Why Didn't Anyone Tell Me About The Presenters?! (And Other Things)

Time for the Eurovision version of the Daily Mail's opinion column and some news reaction in brief.   

• Strangely very few are talking about the presenters this year. Fortunately we are on twitter and found out about this. There's going to be two sexy women (how I have missed Eastern European ESC's) and Eldar - he won last year. Full eurovision.tv report is here. I think what is interesting is the keeping of the three presenter format. [I wonder is that an EBU thing] anyhow I find that it does add to the production so no major complaints there.
• Azerbaijan have made a video with all of the HOD's saying light your fire in their own language. I can't really comment on much of this except Julian Vignoles's [head of Irish delegation] saying "Lás Mo h-Solas" - which means light my light. With no disrespect to the south Dublin near ignorance of the langauge  It should actually be "Lás Do Thine" (note the Fada and Shebhu).
• We now also know that Dima Bilan and Nigar will be part of the interval act in semi final 2. Suffice to say I'll hopefully have enough drank to not have to endure this - or at least not remember it.
• Jedward have released their music video of "Waterline" - It's a bit weird, but still a fairly big budget production. Anyhow here it is:

Back to reviews tomorrow.

Don't Cast Jedward Aside Yet

While I am currently in a total panic to finish a college project, I like most other Irish Eurovision fans spotted an article in today's Irish Independent, pointing to the download success that Jedward are having with their single across Europe. I also find Jedward fans account for a good number of my website hits, so I do like to keep them informed.

Many Eurovision fans have been quick to point out that Jedward's song is not as good as last years. I am inclined to agree with them, but that is only by my own music tastes. In reality Jedwards song, though generic, is a song that will appeal to their fans and people in their target base. Many people have pointed out that their song is like something One Direction would do. But they say this as if it is a bad thing. Songs such as Waterline or Popular (Sweden, 2011) or Stay (Norway, 2012), may not be very popular with Eurovision fans but as Eric Saade showed us last year songs (and performances) can never be completely written off at Eurovision. In fact despite huge negativity around his performance, Eric managed to come 3rd and lost the televote by only two points.

While there is a great standard in this years Eurovision, Jedward will ultimately stand out. Why wouldn't they? The news today that they are doing well across Europe shows their potential in Eurovision. The only other song to be doing well in charts is Euphoria by Loreen, who I think will win Eurovision this year. [Sorry Jedward fans]. The real acid test is how well they do in charts overall [i.e. not just download charts], however Ireland should be delighted by this news. It really does undermine the argument that they have a weak song, if you don't accept that then you have to accept it shows the shear number of Jedward fans already out there.

Finally, for the many Jedward fans who did not follow Eurovision last year. Those who did will remember that it wasn't until the rehearsals started that Jedward began to gain momentum. I think there has been a bigger reaction so far this year but there is still a long way to grow. Even though it has been ongoing for a long time, the race to win Eurovision has a long. long way to go yet.

The Highs And Lows Of National Final Season 2012 Part 2

With another national final season over us and me being away from blogging and technology for a few nights, we turn our attention back to remember the highs and lows of the national final season that was. While it is almost over it will leave us with some great memories. Part 2 continues our series.

Ireland holding a national final
That was a joke wasn't it. Since around October people were pretty sure that Ireland would be sending Jedward to the contest. It actually was slightly surprising to hear that there still would be a Late Late Show special. Anyhow to no ones surprise they won.

And the award for longest interval act goes to....Moldova.
After an huge national final of 22 (roughly, I can't remember) you'd think that they'd wrap it up quickly and get it over with. Oh no, instead Moldova went on the rampage with a 40 minute interval act. I'm not going to put a video of here. It seems pointless. Go and learn how to make an origami swan instead it would seem more useful.

Trackshittaz vs. Conchita Wurst
What a showdown that was in Austria between two guys (with a great song) shouting at people to shake their bottoms and well, Conchita. It really was the most unorthodox showdown of the year and Trackshittaz won by 51% which is really really close.


Loreen's Melodifestivalen Final Performance
Anyone who likes Loreen will understand just how good this amazing performance was. For me it was Melodifestivalen moment of the year.

Cringe performance in Romania.
We wouldn't have spotted this only for Eurovision Apolcalypse. (One of the best Eurovision blogs around). Anyhow I just loved Bianca Purcarea's studio version. However the vocals in her live performance could have been drowned out my rubbing nails on a chalkboard.

 We'll continue the series shortly.

Two Shows Tonight - And It's Sunday

Tonight sees Netherlands and Slovenia pick their two songs and, believe it or not this is the first Sunday with two shows. Personally I am watching Netherlands [and I really love the song Chocolatte]. Their show is quite confusing with a combination of Dutch and International Juries with a televote.

I somehow forgot that Slovenia were picking their ESC song tonight. I am not paying any attention to it as I never liked the X Factor styled competition for picking an ESC singer - anyways I see what Slovenia come up with.

Brain Kennedy, who represented Ireland in 2006 with a song that would have done well in the 90s has hit out at Jedward and their Eurovision song saying that it is forgetable and he fears a Eurovision catastrophe. In my opinion this comment might have held water but really an 8th place last year it is really difficult to say how the twins will do. However even on my most pessimistic projections they should reach the final.

A Night Where Two Show Songs Were Picked

For those who think that Eurovision has more to do with the song than the entertainment factor.

In Austria Trackshittaz won and I was delighted. It is a great song and was more entertaining than the bearded lady.

In Ireland JEWARD WON. As I'm sure your aware we are huge fans of Jedward for two reasons: 1. I suspect they could win Eurovision 2. Jedward fans give us a lot of hits. If another artists fans did this we'd also  support them, if I liked the song enough - we're fickle like that. Sadly RTÉ now

This really was excellent performance and I really liked the mixing. The big surprise was Donna's rather poor performance and Andrew Mann's very good performance which sort of changed peoples expectations of the outcome.

On other points my brother was watching the Late Late Show with me and he took some interest in the songs that other countries have picked. He normally is good to pick up on songs that do well in ESC. He thought that Denmark had picked a rather good song. He drew parallels between Soluna's song and Adele. He also was rather critical of the backing track behind Tooji's song but that may have been the poor sound on our TV. We will be hearing more from him at a later stage - once he owes  me enough.

It's Time To Talk About Ireland

As an Irish Eurovision Blogger of course I have to cast the rather good Austrian selection to the side and favour the country that matters the most to my heart. Ireland this year have a national final that offers two returning Eurovision artists in the from of Jedward and Donna McCaul. We also have a rather strong national final line up by all accounts. At the start of the national final season I had expected the poorest national final imaginable to ensure a Jedward win.

It is time to examine exactly what Ireland needs to do and what is happening with our national final.

Tomorrow night The Late Late Show takes place at 9:35GMT/10:35CET so if your not on GMT you can look forward to a late night for this. I am looking forward to being able to finally watch a national final on the television. If your not in Ireland you should be able to watch it on the RTÉ Player.

So we have 5 songs my full review is here. Too sum it up here we go:

Maria McCool - VERY Traditional song, good vocals. Won't widely appeal. The people who like this music are too conservative to vote I do like it but not as a Eurovision song.
Grade: C-
Jury Prediction: 4th
Public Vote: 5th
Overall: 5th

Donna McCaul - Modern enough song, seems popular with a good number of Eurovision fans. Personally it is good but not amazing, it seems to lack a small amount of fluidity. I'm a little unsure if it will be as good live.

Grade: B
Jury Prediction: Either two points ahead of rest or well behind leader.
Public Vote: 2nd
Overall: 2nd

Andrew Mann - Slow rock is hardly going to be to the taste of the two major groups who will be watching the Late Late - Jedward fans and the arch-Conservative elderly Irish who always watch the show.

Grade: D
Jury Prediction: 3rd
Public Vote: 4th
Overall: 3rd

Una Gibney and David Shannon - This song has been a guilty pleasure of mine. However I think it more than likely won't challenge for votes. It is just a little cheesy and then some.

Grade: B+ [Because I do really like it for it's cheesiness]
Jury Prediction: 5th
Public Vote: 3rd
Overall: 4th


Jedward - Ok the bit that you've been waiting for: by far and away the big ticket item in Ireland has been Jedward returning to Eurovision. It probably has generated more interest in the Irish national final than normal and this may not be a bad thing. The bottom line here is that as the hot favorites to win the question is not are they going to win but how could they not win? Really I cannot see them losing the televote. The massive number of Jedward fans out there going to vote them through. The biggest block in their path is the juries but in reality Jedward  would need to be completely rejected by the juries not to win. However I think the juries will respect their 8th place finish last year and their international recognition and while they may not completely back them they will give them 10 points which would allow them to progress.


Grade: A
Jury Prediction: Leading by either two points or winning all juries
Public Vote: 1st
Overall: 1st

So really it boils down to will Jedward scrap through with two/four points or will they win across the board.
I know there will be many Eurovision fans telling me that Donna would be a far better choice but remember that Jedward fans account for a sizeable share of our readers.

It still is up to Jedward fans to ensure Jedward get a couple of votes on the televote so for get out their and
VOTE FOR JEDWARD!

I Could Hardly Wait: Ireland: The Reivews

In case anyone on Twitter did not notice Ireland revealed it's songs today. To be honest we have a higher standard than I expected from Ireland.

Maria McCool - This is a Sean Nós (Old Tradition) song, which comes from the long tradition of singing in Ireland. It be a style that the rest of Europe would not like and really this style of singing only exists in more remote parts of Ireland. As someone who would listen to this type of song outside Eurovision I think that this song is just a little average. The issue is in the way the bridge to the chorus builds but the chorus does not really develop beyond that level. Overall while I respect this genre of music I can't see it doing overly well on the Late Late Show.

Donna McCaul - Unlike the previous song this is very good and seems to have split fans down the middle between Donna and another two contestants who we will speak about shortly. Donna should be proud of coming back to Eurosong with a reasonably strong song. However while it appears strong I think that the chorus could be hard to replicate on the live show. Also I question if Donna while have the strong staging to lift the song unlike another contestant.

Andrew Mann - And here is the slow rock. I know some fans have hailed this a a great success but I think this is just a little poor in comparison to the other songs in this contest. This will most likely fad away in the contest. Don't like it personally. The Late Late Show stage most likely won't bring out this song at all.

David Shannon & Una Gibney - I don't think that this is a great song for Eurovision it is just a little too cheesy. However on a personal level I real like this song, and I look forward to hearing many times more. The advantages that this song has is that it has a great beat to it. I don't think it is enough to get them to Baku but they might steal a couple of votes off of Donna.

Jedward - What was one of the most anticipated entries of the year came just a little before four o'clock. It's Ireland's revenge for the Nice and Lisbon treaties, it's Jedward. So the song: Well it is good that's for sure and I think that it does suit Jedward. It was not quite what I had expected but it is a direct target at the age group that Jedward's primary fan base is in. The song itself it a tad generic but I think you could say the same about Lipstick. It is good with a nice chorus that is memorable; like Lady Gaga, Jedward's main appeal is their performance rather than music. That's fine too because they are performers. The question is how to perform this. I have no doubt that this will be performed well, however vocals are actually my biggest concern. This song, unlike Lipstick, does require a better standard of vocals or in Jedward's case really good backing singers to get them through the hard bits.

Overall we (Ireland) should be proud of what we have presented. The biggest problem is that unlike say Melodifestivalen where we see the performance as well all we have now is a studio version. This might be fine in Norway but in Ireland it is a chance to weed out poorer entries. In Jedward's case this is their biggest weakness for now. No doubt I will have more editorial on the matter of the Irish Eurosong, but I have to move on the more pressing matters for this weekend. And find the time to review the French entry.

The Jedward Song Title Saga Goes On And On And....

Jedward's Eurovision Song has been revealed as "What's Your Number". In spite of On Top Of The World being rumoured as the possible entry these rumours turned out to be false. 


UPD: The Irish Independent and The Evening Hearld (Neither are an Irish paper of record), are reporting that Jedward's song title is in fact "Waterline". I would normally dismiss such rumours but given that they are quoting Linda Martin on this matter [who is their mentor] I am inclined to believe them. That is the nature of Irish Media where newspaper, political and celebrity circles are all friends with one another. We look forward to hearing Jedward and all the other entry's for Eurovision very shortly on The Mooney Show and I will post about that on Wednesday Night.

Quick News on 1/2/12

Other than the interesting repetition of todays date there is much to talk about in the world of Eurovision so we are here to condense it into a few sentences:

• Ireland's Eurosong line up (we now can reveal) looks complete with Andrew Mann (If you heard of him let us know). He will be mentored by Greg French. Hat tip to Tony Scott from Southeast FM for the news.
• Wiwi Blogs have published a rather interesting number of ideas of things that should go into the Azerbaijan Eurovision Museum. With the help of a number of blogs (us included) it is now complete. You can see it here and it is well worth looking at.
• Greta Sálome will now not have two songs in the Icelandic national final unlike previously advertised. She has dropped from performing the second song which she wrote herself. Instead she will focus on her song with Jonsi. Icelandic national final is on 11th February
• We would like to draw your attention today to the fact that Colm Hayes has  penned a song for Jedward for Euro 2012. I would like to point out that this has nothing to do with Eurovision it is about the Euro 2012 soccer tournament taking place in June. (I suspect some ESC fans may never have heard of it.)

That is all for the moment I expect to have the review of the last MGP semi-finals tonight. Selected ESC songs that are not reviewed at the moment will come in due course.

Who?

We have just heard that Una Gibney and John Shannon will be the third act in Eurosong 2012 in Ireland. We are an Irish blog and have never heard of them. This really is leading me to believe the idea that RTÉ are going to ensure Jedward go to Eurovision.