The Monday After

Only 351 days to the first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2013. [Seems a long way away doesn't it?].

Anyway as Loreen starts to climb up through the charts across Europe it's time to start looking at what happened last night and who came where. 

As you just might already know Sweden won the contest, with 372 points and gaining the most number of 12 points ever [18 sets]. Whether you liked the song or not I think that this is a serious win and one that helps the contest as whole. It shows that the best song can win the contest regardless of where it is geographically. Most of all Sweden's is a huge one for fans of the contest.

Russia came second on Saturday, the grannies proving that age is no barrier to success. [Despite what Engelbert Humperdinck might think]. Serbia came third Zeljko proving that a safe Balkan ballad can bring you some success, especially when there isn't many other Balkan ballads in the competition. Azerbaijan came fourth which is a very respectable for a host country and suggests that Azerbaijan will still be a force to be reckoned with in future contests. Albania came fifth, which might raise a couple of eyebrows, but I did say that this would do a bit better than expected. It shows that a technically good song, combined with an outstanding vocal performance can do well in the contest.

Estonia came sixth which was as surprising as when they came sixth in 2009. Definitely Ott deserved his placing, but this was a big surprise. Turkey came seventh which, I do believe was a fair placing for them. Then three of the big 5 came Germany - Roman Lob doing about as well as can be expected. Italy - I'm not sure how Nina Zilli might feel about her placing but I felt it was a bit below where I'd put the song. Spain came tenth, their best result in since 2004, which they should be pleased with. Personally speaking, Spain was the standout performance of the evening, it was the song I voted for and I think it deserved a high place than it got.

Looking down at the bottom of the table, Norway came last [again] which was a big surprise but given that Loreen most likely hoovered up votes from around Europe this is understandable. UK and Engelbert Humperdinck came second last with just 12 points which was a disappointing results for The Hump. I think the running order really went against the UK though. Also for the second year running the UK did a poor jury final performance. This really will raise some questions in the BBC and I also intend to have a post on the UK over the summer.

Hungary, despite being well tipped to come last didn't, which might be seen as a success. Denmark came 23rd which was disappointing for Soluna Samay. I think she did a wonderful song and full credit to her for that. France came 22nd, showing that touring around Europe doesn't really help your chances. Malta came 21st, no big surprises there. Iceland and Ireland both should be disappointed with their results, Ireland especially, where Jedward were hotly tipped to do well.

The only other real surprise was that Greece fell out of the top 10 for the first time since 2003. This might mean that one of the most consistent Eurovision countries may be falling, but also I don't think that the song deserved to come much higher.

I'll have more  analysis of the results during this week.

Who Will Win Eurovision 2012?

Tonight sometime after 11pm a years worth a speculation, of wonder and projections will all be shown to be either true or untrue. Will 2012 be another 2009? Or maybe a shocking 2000? Well there still is time for a lot more predicting today. So lets look at how the field is shaping up:

Hypothesis 1 - Most Likely

UK - Engelbert didn't have his greatest performance since he arrived in the jury final and I think that this is falling by the wayside at great speeds. Being the first of five slow songs won't help either. Despite earlier predictions of beating Blue, I suspect that this could end up lower than the UK expected. Prediction: 16th-20th


Hungary - This is a song that I really feel is not up to the required standard of the final. I think this will most likely come last but it might do a little better due to a lack of rock in this years final. Prediction: 21st-26th


Albania - Despite what many might say about this song it has a lot of fans out there and is getting quite a lot of views on YouTube. I think this is going to do a lot better than people expect. However the draw will hold it back but I suspect this will be in the jury top 5 and do well on the public televote. Prediction: 6th-10th


Lithuania - I am happy to see Lithuania in the final, however I do suspect that it got there as the 10th qualifier. I think this is just one of those songs that won't standout on the final night. Prediction: 21st-26th


Bosnia & Herzegovina - This is another song which I think shouldn't have made the final as it is really dull. The other Balkan songs will hoover up the votes so I think that this is going to go nowhere and is another potential last place song. Prediction: 21st-26th


Russia - Russia really have a great piece of entertainment in this entry. I suspect though that they will find it difficult to bring this song over the line when the points come in. I think that while there will be some jury support for this I can't really see it making the dizzying heights of the Top 5. However it is sandwiched between a large number of ballads which helps to make it stand out. Prediction: 6th-10th


Iceland - Despite this being a fan favourite and the fact that I do like it as a song, I think this was the one that was saved by the juries from the first semi-final. It is a strong song, and could score reasonably well with juries. However I think that this just isn't going to get enough public televotes. Prediction: 16th-20th


Cyprus - I was impressed with this song in the first semi-final but given the draw and the opposition it is going to come under a lot of pressure. Ivi didn't have the best jury show [vocally] and I think that this will lose out in a high quality show. Prediction: 21st-26th

France - This was another one which could have gone either way. However I think that this song is just to inaccessible to get in one listen and that in the jury final where Auggun would have needed a lot more votes from she didn't sing well enough. Parts of the song were pretty off-key. Overall I can't see this having a huge impact. Prediction: 21st-26th


Italy - Once again Italy and France are beside each other in the final. But this year I think it is very safe to say that Italy will outscore France. Out of Love is a really great song and deserves recognition. I don't believe that this has the oomph to get it over the line but it does have the strength to score well with juries. Nina has given a very consistent performance since she arrived in Baku, there's no reason to suspect that she won't tonight. I think it is a possible winner but an unlikely one. Prediction: 1st-5th


Estonia - I think this is one that is going to do better than expected. I think juries will like this song over other vocally good songs and I think it won't do awfully on the televote. It's not going to win by any stench of the imagination though. Predictions: 16th-20th


Norway - This is a song that I suspected might do well if it got a strong draw. It didn't but it still could do reasonably well for Norway. Tooji didn't give the best performance last night but it wasn't to bad. I think this might come around 10th with the public but about 15th with juries. Prediction: 11th-15th


Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan have definitely sent the typically host country bland song. However it is the host country and it is Azerbaijan who have a short but good track record. There's something in this song for both  juries and public. Prediction: 6th-10th


Romania - If it wasn't for their 2010 entry I'd say this was going to do really well for Romania. This didn't go perfectly in the jury final but it still will score well. This song has a track record so it will do pretty well. Prediction: 11th-15th


Denmark - Despite this being a favourite of mine I think this is not going to do very well. It is a bit of a neutral entry but has some potential. Prediction: 16th-20th


Greece - Tonight is going to be a real test of the strength of the Greek vote. There will be a good number of diaspora votes but I still think this won't get the jury support that it needs. This might well be the first Greek song out of the top 10, but then again di dn't we all say that last year? Prediction: 11th-15th


Sweden - Despite one small mistake in the jury final I think that this is the one to beat. I think that the extra votes that it got at Melodifestivalen, the fact it has been a success in Norway, Finland and Greece shows that it is neither just a fan favourite nor a piece of Swedish music that will only score well in Scandinavia. However if this doesn't win it could come further down the scoreboard. Prediction: 1st-5th


Turkey - After shockingly missing the final last year Turkey are back in a big way, I think that while some think that this is a poor enough song I actually think that it is fairly strong [I still don't like it]. This also works really well on stage. Turkey and Azerbaijan are both very able to score well when both have strong songs and I think that this year will be no different. Prediction: 2nd-5th


Spain - I'm not Spanish but unlike most people I think that this is a really, really good song and the vocal performance is simply jaw dropping. I think this could win the jury vote [marginally] but I think while it is a contender to do that anything is possible tonight so I think it might not do all that well as I'm unsure what the public will make of it. Prediction: 6th-10th


Germany - I think that Germany have come up with a song that might do better if it was only the northwest of Europe voting. I also wonder if Germany is going to be able to override their political image tonight. I know they did this in 2010 but I'm not convinced that they can do so tonight. Juries might well give this a couple of extra points  but I don't see it as the dark horse that everyone else seems to. Prediction: 6th-10th


Malta - Malta were a surprise qualifier in my books but now they have a great draw which might help them, especially when they are surrounded by ballads. I suspect though that this scrapped into te final and I think they should be happy with that. However it is a strong song, compared to those around it so it might get a few more votes. Prediction: 11th-15th


FYR Macedonia - Macedonia have quite a strong song relative to the position in the draw. Kaliopi is one of the more well-known Balkan singers and should score well across the region. She has excellent vocals and is another potential jury winner. But I suspect that the song may not have huge appeal outside of the Balkans. Prediction: 11th-15th


Ireland - I can only say that I'm really proud of Jedward and feel that they are great ambassadors for Ireland. I wish them the best of luck tonight. This was good in the jury final and they have scored well with juries before. The big question is can they overcome Eastern Europe? Last year nearly all the points they got came from Western Europe so if they can't they'll most likely not score as well. But I suspect that they may break Eastern Europe and do pretty well. Prediction: 1st-5th


Serbia - Despite this being third favourite I'm not convinced that this song is fresh enough to be a winner. If Lane Moje could not do it in 2004, when Balkan Ballads were popular I find it difficult to believe that a less exciting copy of the song can beat it in 2012. Having FYR Macedonia doesn't help Zeljko's chances either. Prediction: 1st-5th

Ukraine - Ukraine did well in the draw, drawing the well regarded second last slot. Ukraine have a very strong singer with a not-so-strong song. It will pick up a couple of undecided votes in the coming so late. Prediction: 6th-10th


Moldova - This is a song I feel will be lost at the end. After a rake of strong songs this almost pales in comparision. Pasha is a great performer and singer but there is little in this to really bring in a lot of votes. Prediction: 16th-20th


So it's time to get off of the fence. I think that the Top 5 will look like this:

1. Sweden

2. Italy

3. Turkey

4. Ireland

5. Serbia

That's really all that can be said. I wish everyone good luck tonight. It's in the hands of the juries and the public now. May the best song win.

My Favourites!

After a minimum of two months listening to all of these songs suddenly you have to consider all of them together and now that I have seen them all performed live we can start to see just which songs are in my Top 10 for 2012.

This year as with any is difficult to work out exactly which are my favourites. But here we go, (with reasons why). Ireland is always excluded from my favourites due to bias towards our entry which I think you should all vote for and bring the contest to Dublin. As you can see a tiny amount of bias is coming through. So in no particular order my top 10 are:


Sweden - Well it's been one of my favourites since it was picked. I just love this and I think it would be a deserving winner. I'm not convinced that the song was performed as well as it could have been in the semi-final but maybe that's me being picky though. 


Estonia - Ott may not have the best song in the competition but his vocal performance is strong. It is a great relaxing song and came across well in the semi-final. I think this did well in the semi and could score well off the juries in the final.


Romania - Since the rehearsals started I have gone from thinking that this is OK to thinking that it is fairly flat to being one of the most fun entries this year. The song comes across really well and this is hugely thanks to a strong performance from Mandinga. 


UK - Despite some reservations about Engelbert going to Eurovision for the UK I still think that the song he as produced is really really good and is a great one to listen to. Engelbert has come up well in the rehearsals and it should be good on the night.

Spain - Whatever people might say about Spain I think that this is just an outstanding song. It's not a great one for the MP3 player but it is a truely amazing song live. I know how the Spanish fans feel about this entry and I'm not quite sure that it is a winner, but it is a strong song. 

Italy - Of course as second/third/fouth [depends on the bookmaker] favourites they have a really strong song and a really good singer to pull it off. Italy did well last but I don't expect that they will break last years results.  
Largely because it's to safe to do really well. It doesn't have the risk of Raphael last year.


Russia - One of the most discussed songs this year had fallen in my estimation during the run up to the rehearsals. However on Tuesday night I though that this was stunning. Not my favourite and I don't think that it is a winner but I still think that it has hit potential. 


Denmark - I accept that not everyone loves this song. Despite the cute and cuddly image this has come through a seriously tough DMGP and continues to divide fans. The jury rehearsal of this was strong. I don't think it is a winner but it isn't going to come last. Personally it was my favourite in the first semi-final, it has fallen a bit since then but it still is really great. 


Iceland - I've had a soft spot for this song as have many fans. I'm not convinced that this is as good as some people make out based on the semi-final performance and YouTube numbers. I recognise it as a really great song and I acknowledge that.


Albania - This is another song that was simply outstanding in the semi-final. It's a simple performance of a really complex song. Well done Albania.


You're still reading? Great. You skipped down here without reading the above? That's not so good but I'll survive. So I would place these songs in the following order.

12. Sweden

10. Albania

8. UK

7. Italy

6. Spain

5. Iceland

4. Denmark

3. Romania

2. Estonia

1. Russia

I'll put up real predictions either tonight or tomorrow morning once the jury final is over.

A Couple Of Surprising Results

While the press gather to fire up live streams and blogs I shall take a couple of moments to discuss the semi-final results. So here is a couple of small points on the contest.

The Qualifiers
Just in case you've forgotten the qualifiers were (In Random Order):

1. Lithuania

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina 

3. Serbia

4. Ukraine

5. Sweden

6. FYR Macedonia

7. Norway

8. Estonia

9. Malta

10. Turkey

The main surprises were the qualification of Lithuania, B+H, Malta and to a lesser extent FYR Macedonia. The biggest losers were Slovenia and Portugal in my opinion. While the names are surprising about 15 songs were in the mix to qualify, no one shocking came out though. My predictions were a bit out - I only got 7/10. 

The Interval Act
I thought that the interval act definitely one of the best we've seen until Ell & Nikki proved that even they thought that their winning song was boring so just sung Waterloo [a bit out of tune] just to confuse people. It was pure car crash television.

Presenters
Presenters were as good as they were in Semi-Final 1. Which was pretty poor.

The Finalists
Finalists are from all over Europe but they break down as follows. 3 Balkans, 2 Baltic, 2 Scandinavia, Turkey, Malta and Ukraine. Which is pretty diverse. The importance of the running order was clearly shown.  Despite predictions of the 3-5 from the first half and 5-7 from the second half being broken it wasn't and the break down was four from the first half and six from the second.


The Draw will take place in the press conference which is currently ongoing.

The Draw 
The positions drawn is as follows:

Lithuania - #4

B+H - #5

Serbia - #24

Ukraine - #25
Sweden - #17
Macedonia - #22
Norway - #12
Estonia - #11
Malta - #21
Turkey - #18

This is a very interesting draw. I'll be writing about this in more detail over the next couple of hours and days but by this time Saturday. 

Semi-Final 2: The Qualifiers

Predictions Time!

Semi-Final 2 is definitively the better one musically but with 5 Balkan countries, two from Scandinavia and two from the Baltics this becomes a hard one to predict. Looking at my workings theres probably 15 songs that could make the final it is just a question of who. So in the order I expect them to score here are my predictions:

1. Sweden

2. Serbia

3. Estonia

4. Norway

5. Turkey

6. Ukraine

7. Georgia

8. Slovenia

9. Bosnia & Herzegovina

10. Portugal

Just Missing Out

11. Macedonia

I'll try to do as much coverage as I can but in the morning I have my driving test so lets hope that I manage to pass this time.

Semi-Final 2: My Favourites

Before I have to delve into the ins and outs of trying to predict how semi-final 2 will go, I have to put up a favs post. Even though this is a better semi musically there is very little that is really getting me excited. The exception being though my top two in this semi-final.

12 points - Sweden

10 points - Portugal

8 points - Netherlands

7 points - Estonia

6 points - Norway

5 points - Slovenia

4 points - Ukraine

3 points - Lithuania

2 points - Serbia

1 point - Malta

I'll but up a predictions post either late tonight or tomorrow morning when I've got reports from the jury rehearsal.

What A Week!

So as the technical rehearsals draw to a close we now have had a really fun week so I'm going to use this post to look back on that as well as to tell you my top 10 for semi-final 1 and to look to the week ahead.

Rehearsals Week 2012
Sunday (last week) saw the beginning of the rehearsals with the first half of semi-final 1 starting. The big winners here were Iceland and Romania who both went from being likely to definite qualifiers. Belgium also perked themselves up as possible qualifiers. There was one car crash which was Greece who raised a couple of eyebrows with their performance, particularly vocals.

Monday saw people actually consider that there was a mild chance that San Marino could qualify. Denmark and Russia both gave us performances that leads me to believe either could win the first semi-final. Moldova seems to have come across well on stage and Pasha showed us he had some vocals. Ireland managed to underwhelm everyone but everyone still thinks that it is sailing through to the final. Austria was Monday's car crash.

Tuesday saw the rise of Macedonia and the fall of Bulgaria but was by far the dullest day we had.

Wednesday was Sweden's day as their march to victory began. Loreen certainly has her critic's though and there is certainly an anti-Sweden vibe coming through from Baku. It's in many blogs but it seems especially prevalent in the press reports from Baku. Other highlights included Norway's off key rehearsal [well if your like me and don't like Tooji]. Bosina & Herzegovina also fell in many peoples expectations.

Thursday and Friday saw second rehearsals begin. Austria and b redeemed themselves a little, and Ireland got the fountain working. Russia proved that everyone still loves the Grannies and Greece showed they can make marginal improvements to a vocal performance.

Saturday and Sunday saw Sweden take to the stage and finally nail the performance [depending on whether you think she mumbles the song or not]. Norway also managed to get the vocal performance back together. The Big 5 and Azerbaijan also showed us that they are able to take the lead at Eurovision. Italy showed they might not have cared about Eurovision but that they can still do there best to try to win it. Italy now in moved as a strong favourite, probably second to Loreen. Germany showed that Stefan Raab can still produce a good entry and Germany has exceeded expectations to become one of the potential winners of the contest. The UK left us all a bit worried after the first rehearsal but we all calmed down a bit after the second rehearsal. Clearly Engelbert can pull this off live.

My Top 10 [Semi-Final 1]
So that was rehearsal week, but how do the songs stand now? Well I will publish my thoughts on the semi-final 1 qualifiers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning after I get reports for the dress rehearsals and more importantly the jury final. But for now my Top 10 favourites [and my votes are]:

• 12 points - Denmark
• 10 points - Iceland 
• 8 points - Finland
• 7 points - Austria
• 6 points - Romania 
• 5 points - Russia
• 4 points - Belgium
• 3 points - Albania 
• 2 points - San Marino 
• 1 point - Greece

So that's my Top 10 I expect some of you might disagree with it but unfortunately you cannot change my music tastes.

Tomorrow

Though the will be no live shows tomorrow, it is an important day. At 3pm CET the first full run through of the dress rehearsal will begin and, more importantly, at 9pm CET tomorrow evening the jury final will take place. I will have a blog post assessing what happened in that. See you all tomorrow.

Rehearsals: Day 4: Part 1

Today is the last major day of first rehearsals - tomorrow it moves over to seconds rehearsals which are usually don't tell us all that much extra, but anyhow today there are 10 songs taking to the stage, so we have to keep moving forward. First up was Slovenia

Slovenia - Rehearsal Video
Slovenia are definitely a strong contender but looking at this today all I can think of is Croatia and Feminmen who were considered a shoe in to the final. One stage the white is looking very effective, and the general tone of the song is coming across well. Apparently they are trying out a lot of different backgrounds in today's rehearsal. There are Molitva comparisons going on but I think that that might be overrating the song.

Croatia - Rehearsal Video
Croatia are very unfortunately just after Slovenia, the song is rather like Slovenia's but it does lack something. The performance is certainly interesting to watch, given all of the dancing with lots of moody lighting in the background. This is unfortunately not as accessible as Slovenia and could struggle. I'm also hoping that she intends to change her dress and that that one will not be worn at live show.

Sweden - Rehearsal Video
Sweden have been the most anticipated rehearsal. I didn't review Sweden but along with Denmark, Iceland and Italy it is among my favourites. The performance has not changed hugely since the national final but at the end the background does light up with snow. In the rehearsal video that I saw the was no actually snow falling but they do run that prop sometimes. Overall I think that this was an extremely solid rehearsal and this probably is the start of Sweden's march to victory. There has been a general movement against Sweden in the press center and this is very noteworthy as these factors do influence media a lot. Sometimes it is good to be here is Dublin away from all that.

Georgia - Rehearsal Video 
As I have previously discussed I feel that this is one of the weakest songs in this years contest. No doubt though that the performance will be able to lift it a little and today showed that Anri is a very strong performer.  There are a lot of props involved in this entry. There is also the addition of backing singers also helps this entry. The overall presentation is a bit camp and I am really unconvinced on this as a qualifier. Apparently he has a drum and some pyros as well.

Turkey - Rehearsal Video
This is going to go down a storm in Baku, obviously because of the close links between Azerbaijan and Turkey. For Can this really will help to get him to stand out just a little more. Can has decided to keep this performance in line with the ship theme. However the backdrop starts with a sea and lighthouse but then develops into something different which might just be a boring, personally I'd keep the lighthouse all the way through. Vocally this was fine, with no major hiccups, so at the moment it should bring Turkey back into the final after last year. Strangely this reminds me of a Greek entry more than a Turkish one but I don't know why that is.

Estonia - Rehearsal Video
Estonia have a very divisive entry, I think that it is a possible qualifier though. I think that based on today's rehearsal this is a real contender, vocally it was spot on and the backing singer really helps the song. The intense colour really adds to the song. This is not a definite qualifier in my books but it is getting  very close.

Slovakia - Rehearsal Video
I do like this entry but the performance is doing nothing for it. In short: Soften the band image, improve the harsh vocals [i.e. with Lemsip], lose the sunglasses and lose the hat. More eye contact with the camera is required. The song does seem to end very suddenly though which is a little concerning. Eldrine slipped into the final last year and ended up 9th which was a big surprise so there clearly is a market for this out there and these people do actually watch Eurovision.


Norway - Rehearsal Video
Eric Saade Mark II I mean em, Tooji, stepped up for rehearsals today. Visually and in terms of dance moves this is excellent and a very strong visual close to the end. Vocally though it is quite off the mark. I will be waiting for the second rehearsal before I cast aspirations over how this will do. I expect it to qualify but not with ease. Many are suggesting that this could be the surprise non-qualifier of this semi-final but I suspect that the combination of a great draw and the dance show will mean it will go down a storm with the female televoters.

Bosnia + Herzegovina - Rehearsal Video
As expected Maya Saar has delivered a fairly understated performance of her song. The most outstanding thing about this song is the very strange choice of backdrop. Looking at the large number of steady cams on stage this will definitely be an up close and personal performance. Vocally this was good, but that doesn't take from the dull song. While some in the press center are suggesting that this might be the first non-qualifier from Bosnia + Herzegovina. I'm unconvinced, I think it is going through but I'm very hesitant to say that. I'll wait and see what further rehearsals bring.

Lithuania - Rehearsal Video
As usual I cannot understand the logic behind using a blindfold. The performance starts similarly to the one in the national final. Vocally this was spot on, but I still am unconvinced by the song. I think the last 90 seconds work really well on stage. The last 90 seconds backdrop is really interesting, again with the dancing figures in the back ground. This would normally be a non-qualifier but coming at the end of a fairly dull [for the non-Eurovision public] semi-final this might slip through.

Another Look At The Betting Odds

In the last two weeks we have looked at the odds for Eurovision 2012 in the semi-finals but today we will now look at the odds overall. I'm using PaddyPower for this because they are fairly large (and accurate) and oddschecker is not always accurate. 

Unsurprisingly Sweden is up front by a long chalk. 2.25/1 is the odds, I'm holding out til rehersals until I put a bet on Sweden as I suspect the odds will start to widen at that point. In second are Russia and Italy on 7/1, which is more like the kind of odds I'd expect at this point of the year. I think both of these entries are risky and could conceivably drop much lower than this on the night. They'll still be on the left of the scoreboard though. Serbia is a far safer bet, and aside from Sweden the only country that I am pretty sure will be in the top 10. PaddyPower allows you to bet each way on four places. I'm not sure that Serbia will be one of these. 

Then we move out a little to 14/1 in here we have: Denmark, UK and Ireland. There can be little surprise that Ireland is doing well with an Irish bookmaker. Denmark is about right at 14/1, I think they might not break last years 5th place but top 10 is well within the reach of Soluna Samay. The UK might be a little overhyped given the risk could be associated with Engelbert's performance but also [far more importantly], the UK has a fairly poor running order position.

Next we come to Spain on 18/1 which is no surprise given that Pastora Soler is an excellent performer with a pretty strong song. I actually think that the odds are a poor reflection of this song, I don't expect that it will rip forward into the top 3, but given the songs strength and good running order, I'd say that top 10 should be with in reach. At 20/1 is Germany, which I cannot see making the Top 10 let alone winning and Turkey. Turkey is interesting because reports from Netherlands Eurovision party were not good, but I will await further reports from Baku before I decide what to make of it.

Iceland is at 22/1, which some might argue is a good bet, then Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Norway are at 25/1. Norway might also be a good bet, Romania is pretty accurate but Greece and Cyprus look a bit a ahead of themselves, particularly Cyprus. Then there is a substantial gap to Azerbaijan at 40/1. To be honest it's a poor song but Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan and they will leave a mark on the scoreboard no matter what. Being the hosts will also help. Then at 50/1 are Slovenia, Estonia and Netherlands. Netherlands are the odd men out here. I think this might be caused by a couple of fans putting on money but we shall see.

I shall refrain from going beyond here as to do so would be pointless, suffice to say I don't think that the others have much of a fighting chance.

Surprise!: More points to Sweden

While we have been giving some coverage and opinion to the results of the OGAE votes. However as the results seem to be pointing in one direction it seems aimless to continue giving coverage to Sweden winning each club. Full results are available over on www.escxtra.com.

It is very unsurprising to see that Iceland is coming second either, fans have been behind both of these entries since the start.

The most interesting trend is the fact that the Netherlands came second in the UK but didn't score so well in many other fan clubs. I suspected that this would be the case as it seems that the fans would love the entry are mainly British. That is not to say that other fans [including myself] do not really like it but I think it is mainly peaking in the UK.

LESS THAN 4 WEEKS TO EUROVISION

I know that things are falling behind here but while Eurovision may be just around the corner, for me, that corner is called college exams. Anyhow its going to take another ten days and then a further 3 days to get over the after exam party hangover. Anyhow there is a small bit of business to be talked about:

• I've only just realised that the first semi-final of Eurovision is less than 4 weeks away. YAY
• The good people running West-End Eurovision this year are going to streaming it live tomorrow night on their website.
• Spain and the UK have announced the results of their OGAE votes, full results are over on escXtra. Unsurprisingly Sweden received both 12's. This leaves Sweden in the lead. Italy and Netherlands got the two sets of 10 points. UPD: As I was writing this I noticed that Finland and Croatia have also awarded 12 points to Sweden and Loreen. This now puts Sweden on course for a landslide victory - It's all starting to remind me of Norway 2009.
• Finally Eurovision Croatia sent me over a video which I actually think is very heartwarming and nice to see fans out and about rather than simply on the internet. You can see it here.

The Odds: Semi-Final 2

This year semi-final two has been definitely the less talked about this year. Despite this fact I think that the more likely winners of the whole contest are going to come from semi-final.

So how does semi 2 look. There are two broad appeal pop songs from Norway and Sweden. It is very likely that they will take two spots in the final. No surprises then that the three most likely songs to proceed to the final are Serbia, Sweden and Norway. Moving on then we have Bosnia, who may not have an amazing song put have   a great spot in the running order. Then there's Turkey who will surely qualify to the final.

So then we move into shakier parts of this semi-final Estonia are next in the bookies odds and I think that that is a very mean price for Estonia. I am not trying to say that I don't like it I just don't think that Estonia are certain qualifiers.

Slovenia is in 8th position which I think is a generous price for Eva Boto as I think her song is very good as a Balkan ballad. Belarus is 9th position and I am not sure if this is a qualifier, I think that the disco version is very strong but it looks like a non-qualifier to me.

The two songs that I think is Portugal and Lithuania. I don't think that Lithuania is amazing but it is hard to imagine that a last slot song would not qualify. I think that Portugal has one of the strongest compositions this year. Even though this is a tough semi-final for ballads and Portugal has many things going against it, I think this could be the surprise qualifier.

Baku Completes The Crystal Hall

While I try and get to the end of the college year, the blog has become a little quieter than usual. I am sorry about this but I will make up for it as Eurovision nears [and exams are over].

Today we learned that Baku has now completed the Crystal Hall and Azerbaijan have now started to reveal plans about how Eurovision will operate. A press conference was held today in Azerbaijan about most the completion of the hall. They also mentioned that buses will be the main mode of transport, and each delegation will have no less than two buses each available to them 24 hours per day.

SVT have also started their preview shows, looking at the first nine songs of semi 1. Full results are here. Some of the votes are interesting, particularly Finlands high score.

OGAE Slovenia Presents Mad Set Of Results

I was somewhat surprised today to see that OGAE Slovenia announced a rather odd set of results.

They awarded Spain 12 points, Iceland 10 points and Serbia 8 points. The big surprise here is that Sweden only got 7 points. This surprised me as I expect that Euphoria would have a landslide score in the OGAE votes. Their votes did contrast a lot from Bulgaria but this is to be expected as Eastern European OGAE clubs often return more contrasting votes compared to western fan clubs. I think this is often very true when the club might not be a very big one.

The other noticeable difference was that many countries that received smaller votes were very different. Countries like Italy, UK and Russia all got their first points. It might to early to say but I think that there are very few songs that will receive a broad consensus from fans this year.

Anyhow this results keep Loreen in front on 19 points with Serbia just behind on 18. Cyprus and Spain are both on 12 points and are currently joint third. Full results are on escXtra.com.

A Rough Guide To Melodifestivalen Final

So, as any reader should have noticed by now Melodifestivalen, The Final takes place in Globen this week. So what is in store. Well after four semi-finals and Andra Chansen we have ten songs to go before eleven international juries and the Swedish televoting public.

The Contestants

1. David Lindgren - Shout It Out 
2. Thorsten Flinck Och Revolutionsorkestern - Jag Reser Mig Igen 
3. Dead By April - Mystery
4. Lisa Miskovsky - Why Start A Fire
5. Top Cats - Baby Doll
6. Loreen - Euphoria
7. Ulrik Munther - Soldiers
8. Bjorn Ranelid ft. Sara Li - Mirakel
9. Molly Sandén - Why Am I Crying
10. Danny Saucedo - Amazing

The Scene

In spite of what some fans have said this is shaping up to be a better Melodifestivalen final than the last two years. Nevertheless if your a Eurovision, Melodifestivalen or just someone with nothing to do between 8pm and 10pm CET you should be watching the Melodifestivalen Final. It is always exciting, particularly with the advent of the international juries (I don't have a clue who sits on them or how their picked and would love to know do get in touch if you know).

The Deciders

The winner is decided on by international juries in: Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovia, UK, Estonia, France Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, Norway, Germany and Ukraine. They award 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 points to their favourite songs. according to Christer Bjorkman, Melodifestivalen producer, the international juries understand how seriously Swedes take Melodifestivalen. 

In terms of trivia France, Ireland and Norway have had juries in the voting for the last two years. Of these Ireland is the most accurate having given the eventual winner 10 points on both occasions. Norway averages 4 and France 6. Of the countries this year UK and Malta were the only ones to award 12 points to Popular last year.

473 points are then distributed to the 10 songs as a percentage proportionate to their percentage in the public televote. The winner is the song with the most points. Since 1999 televoting has been used continuously in Melodifestivalen. With the exception of 2005 and 2008, the winner of the televote has won the overall competition.

The Odds and the Polls

Every year a countless number of polls and odds come out. Eurovision fan poll results are broadly consistent with the results of Melodifestivalen (With the noteable exception of 2010). The leader of the polls (both Eurovision fan polls and internal Swedish polls) would suggest Loreen will win. Most people suggest that this is a straight two way fight between Loreen and Danny but Melodifestivalen is never that clear cut. I think that Molly Sandén or Thorsten Flinck could emerge as a dark horse. Bookies are largely in line with this view point.

So we will have more on Melodifestivalen this week, but in the mean time we have a little surprise for you which we will unveil during the week. We don't know if you will like it but hopefully you will.

P.S. Vote on our poll for Melodifestivalen on the top left of the blog.

The Winner Normally Comes From Semi-Final 4....really?

So I'm just a little pushed for time this evening on account of the Irish National Final tomorrow [currently working on a personal post about that will be up later].

This year the big ticket match up was putting Charlotte Perrelli and Danny into the same semi-final but anyhow there's eight songs to be reviewed:

Charlotte Perrelli - This was way behind what I had expected from Charlotte. If this was not Charlotte I would say I really like the song but it won't qualify. What is that screen in the middle of the clip for.? The Swedes can be very strange when they vote and are very fickle. So I think we will be meeting Charlotte next week in Ardra Chansen. Grade: B+

OPA - Boring Greek song, not really fit for the Melodifestivalen stage, should come in last place. Grade: D-

Dynazty - Standard rock song on a pop beat. Nothing special in comparision to Death By April. I think this will either go to the final or Andra Chansen [it certainly won't be left behind]. Grade: B

Lotta & Christer - Two big ticket singers in the chessyest song I have heard in a long time. Picture a lump of really hard chesse and then multiply it a million times and you have the song. I still like it though. Grade: C+

Hanna Lindblad - Like her last MF entry this is a little too unorginal and popy to qualify. I still think that it is a reasonable entry but probably will not qualify. Grade: C

Axel Algmark - A strange kind of old style mixes with new style entry but the resulting product is not very impressive. Grade: D-

Lisa Miskovaky - A very good song but one which is unlikely to qualify. It is too dead sounding and lacking anything for the listener to catch onto. Grade: C+

Danny - Suffice to say Danny was the big ticket name for Melodifestivalen this year. His song is far from amazing. I think it is an improvement from In The Club but that might not nessicarly be a good thing. The stage performance clearly has a huge budget but I really hate these over gimmicky performances at Melodifestivalen when other artists don't seem to get such a budget. Grade: B-

So in spite of all of the hype around this semi-final, having heard the 32 songs, Melodifestivalen looks set to boil down to a three way fight between Loreen, Danny and Molly Sandén. I'm also going to toss David Lindgren into the mix as a dark horse.

Sweden Finally Gets It Right: Semi-Final Reaction

Because of the rather huge number of shows tonight my reactions are divided into two pieces one for the semi-finals [this one] and one for the ones selecting their ESC song [later].

Sweden: This evenings semi-final in Leksand finally brought me some happiness with the result. Over the last two weeks I had become concerned about the general way the final of  Melodifestivalen was shaping up. This week looked set to be another disappointing one until BANG out came Molly Sandén, looking very sexy and with a vocal performance to match. Her vocals were far more emotional and on key then the earlier clips and rehearsals would suggest. I was also extremely impressed to see them send Bjorn Ranelid and Sara Li to the final. It is an excellent song even if 99% of Eurovision fans dislike it. They also smartly sent Youngblood and Andreas Johnsson to Andra Chansen. Andra Chansen is shaping up to be a very tough contest.

Estonia: It would seem that Estonia have sent August Hunt, Loss Paranoias, Ott Lepland, Liis Lemsalu, POP Maniacs to the final. This does not appear to have gone down well with Eurovision fans, but because I did not watch the show I have no opinion but given my reviews I actually think this was a broadly good result.


Lithuania: Something happened in Lithuania you can read about it here: http://escxtra.com/2012/02/impressions-from-the-3rd-semifinal/

So that was the semi-finals.

Tonight: It's Another Super Saturday

Today sees a huge marathon of shows across Europe. 4 Acts will be selected today/tonight we know one of those already that is Ukraine who had their final at the ungodly hour of 11:30 CET - here in Ireland that's 10:30 and I wanted a lie on more than I wanted to watch Ukraine. So I didn't see it but I have seen the winner. [full post later].

Otherwise two songs will be presented tonight - that's Italy [who I am very much looking forward to hearing] and Croatia. Croatia will have a special show at 20:00 CET which lasts one hour so we such hear the song around 21:00 CET. Italy will present their song as well tonight and I suspect that it could be very late tonight [after 23:00 CET] before we hear the song I am not sure what I will be watching tonight so I recommend watching the usual channels for information about Italy.

Latvia also will select their entry tonight in a dual final format. The first will be at 18:00 CET [about one hour from now] and the second super final will be at 20:00 CET. I will throw up the review shortly.

Sweden holds the third semi-final of Me.lodifestivalen tonight at 20:00 CET. You can read our reviews of it here.

Lithuania holds a semi-final too at 20:00 CET. Estonia holds one which starts at 20:30 CET. You can read our reviews of the Estonian semi-final here.

This may all be bit  confusing so I recommend the page that escXtra have developed.

A Slightly Poorer Semi-Final

Sweden presented their songs as is now a regular Thursday job. So here come the somewhat later than usual.

Youngblood- Generic boyband. What is more interesting is the beat of the song, which strangely is the exact same as Eric Saade's Manboy - I've checked. The song does not have quite as strong a melody but still I'd say this should go directly to the final because it is well positioned in front of some rather dull songs and there is very little in this semi to soak up the teen girl [except Molly Sandén]. Also having people often go for the beat over anything else so that figures. I was not the biggest fan of Manboy and the same is here. Grade: C+

Maria BenHajji - I like a tryer and this is a very sweet but unremarkable song. This will most likely stay at the early stage of the competition. Might struggle to be in 7th place. Grade: C-

Carolina Wallin Pérez - Very strange song, not helped by Carolina. Like the last one I cannot see how this could go anywhere in the semi-final. Grade: E-

Mattias Andrésson - A song that is best described as "fine". There is nothing extremely worng with the song but it could do with a lift. Grade: D+

Love Generation - Finally, something good. This is a tiny bit more rockish then I had expected, however the is a few problems with how the chorus works. It reminds me a lot of a pink song. But face it is Love Generation - that alone makes them great.  Personally love this but reckon this could struggle to make Andra Chansen tomorrow night. Grade: B+

Andreas Johnsson - Yeah, here we go again. For someone who said that he was finished with Melodifestivalen in 2010 he sure is back fast. This is more like what I would expect from Andreas Johnsson. It is largely more close to his 2006/7 entries but I still think that this just is not as good as they were. I think it sounds like Andra Chansen. Grade: B-

Molly Sandén - Molly Sandén: Sweden's answer to Miley Cyrus. Without a doubt Molly's popularity should carry her through to the final but this song is a little behind my expectations for this song. It is not as good as her 2009 entry Sa Vill Stjorna. The problem with the Sandén sisters is it all a bit soft and cuddly. I'd personally try something a little more rockish with this song but we have what we have let's see where this goes. Grade: B

Bjorn Ranelid & Sara Lis - There goes a time anytime you review things where you have to just put your credibility on the line and see what happens so here we go: I think this song is excellent. Yes, I have listened to it at least 40 times today but I still think that there is something very strnage about it that I just love. Everything about it works. As they say in the North: it's the way you tell'm. I don't fully understand why I love this all I know is I do. Grade: A

So as you can see I would love to see Bjorn and Sara go through to the final with Love Generation but I suspect it will be Molly and Youngblood. I would like to see Molly and Andreas in AC but suspect it will be Bjorn/ Sara with Andreas. I will post a Latvian final review if I find the time.

Here We Go Again: The Odds Check

The good people over at Nicerodds have been good enough to try to tap into the Eurovision fan market by putting together the odds from many Irish, UK and Nordic bookmakers. Many of the countries that have not even detailed about their national final yet are given odds but we are not going to consider most of them yet as it just reflects a countries historic strength at Eurovision.

• Going first to Austria where unsurprisingly Conchita Wurst the favorite to win, with (surprisingly) 3 punkt 5 and Trackshittaz lagging behind. I wouldn't be  surprised if there was a surprise winner in Austria but Conchita and Trackshittaz would be good in Baku.
• Moving North to Germany where we see Roman Lob is the Hot favourite to win, given that he seems to be winning the qualifiers so far this is not surprising. It will most likely be him in Baku, and I do actually need to see him as I have not seen him performing yet.
• Moving further north again to Sweden where Youngblood and Molly Sandén are favourites to progress from semi-final 3 but after yesterday it is clear we need to see the songs first. In terms of the winner of Melodifestivalen 2012 
• So what about ESC? Sweden somewhat surprisingly are riding upfront possibly reflecting the strength of Melodifestivalen 2012. Serbia follows probably because of Zelio Zehomsomethingorother. We will have to hear his song first though. Otherwise the usual suspects are there, Azerbaijan, Armenia etc. Interestingly Ireland is quite high - 14/1 (reflecting Jedward being in our national final). Of the songs picked Norway is 14/1 to win with Denmark behind on 18/1 however one bookie is only offering 7/1 on Denmark making them the clear favorites at this early stage. Cyprus is 25/1. France, despite being well up on fan lists (not mine) is 50/1. The longest odds of a currently picked song is Malta on 130/1.