Sure Eurovision Has Been Doing That For Years!

I sat down to watch Britains Got Talent on Sunday night as I missed it on Saturday night. So sob stories aside there were some delights, like the fact that David Walliams is now a judge and Simon Cowell is back. (There was also someone from Baywatch there who didn't know the slightest bit about talent but was great to look at.)
But with the show aside every piece of talent that I looked at was straight out of Eurovision. Some with slight changes, let's have a look. (Sorry if you have to watch some of these on Youtube it won't let me embed them.

That's not Tom Dice (it's Sam Kelly instead).
No it is not, but it could be him singing here. Sam Kelly is here singing Make You Feel My Love.

It The (Ballroom) Schalgerboys
Ok, you won't see this at Euroclub (at least based on the things I've heard.) But still, this is all I could think of while I watched this. It may be the gayest thing I've ever seen.

Bradley and Barbara
It may not be Bjorn Ranelid and Sara Li but it's close.

Costume Changes
I am torn between Sean Banan and just a heap of costume changes, both of which we have seen at Eurovision. Dennis Egel is his name anyway. Make of it what you will.

  
Ell and Nikki's rehearsals
Certainly if you listened to the reports from the rehearsals Nikki was holding Eldar back which is kind of what is happening here. Good looking, not quite as good a singer girl, Charlotte is holding back phantom of the Opera (or Mc Donalds) [I can be so cruel] Johnathan. Anyhow this also provided for some really great awkward television when Simon suggested he dump Charlotte.

 

ICT and Eurovision: The Dynamic Duo

In a slight change from our national final coverage today we consider the profound impact that ICT (Information Communication Technology) on Eurovision and Eurovision fandom.


When Eurovision began all the way back in 1956 nobody thought that it would grow into the massive contest of forty-something countries [maybe because there was not that many countries in Europe in the first place]. However until the early 2000's the contest really was quite a grand affair. It was closer to a piece of theater than the massive arena style concert that it is today.

But where did it all come from? What caused the massive boom in Eurovision after a period of declining popularity of television. Well in my view there were two major changes. The first was a rather simple one. This was the expansion of venues. This led to a change in the audience at the contest. No longer would it be an audience of government officials and the great and good of society. Now Eurovision fans can get tickets and today they descend upon any arena, in any country, in a flag waving frenzy.

The second and slightly more important change in Eurovision fandom is the growth of technology. This has allowed Eurovision fans to build more websites and blogs discussing the contest. But social media outlets like Twitter has succeeded in bring fans together in one place far more successfully then any other website. It allows for far more chat and opinion then we used to see. Twitter has also allowed Eurovision news to move from a newspaper style to a much more entertaining format with fast developing stories for us fans. Only as I was writing this news came through about Italy changing their Eurovision entry.

Other hugely important changes is the advent of live streaming online. This allows the contest to be shown anywhere and has lead to a huge growth in the numbers of fans that can watch the contest. This has lead to a growth of the contest in non-European regions such as the USA (Samantha Ross might elaborate a little further here)  regions such as Australia have the contest broadcast on TV so that doesn't really count. The other major advance with web streaming was the ability of fans to watch national final season. I think Melodifestivalen was the first to be broadcast online in 2005. This opened fans to the wonderful national final season in every country. This brought fans together much earlier in the year to see what was being chosen and the songs that were .

However of all the technology out there YouTube probably has changed the face of Eurovision and Eurovision fandom completely. Now you can watch almost every performance at Eurovision online any time you want. This also helps immensely with national finals and promotion of Eurovision entries. As someone who became interested in Eurovision through it's history rather than something else I heard many of them on YouTube before I got involved in the day-to-day ongoings of the contest.

Where to next?
Well this is the big question.

Somethings - such as Twitter or Facebook probably are broadly going to stay the way they are [unless new features are added]. However as a means of communication they are still really important. But as with many things in social media after the shock of the technology and the hysteria wears off, focus moves from the social side to what is actually being said in the media part. Anyone who, is a political nutcase/junkee like myself [I have other interests outside Eurovision] will have noticed that the tweet tracker in the Washington post probably is a fair way of gauging how the GOP race (Republican Primaries) is going. [I would also argue it is going nowhere]. Other internet trackers of Eurovision such as the Google tracker are very good at seeing who are the talked about entries. Anyone who is following National Final season on Twitter will understand the importance of using Twitter trends in gauging national finals.

YouTube on the other hand is another story. YouTube intends to launch their own TV channels to be streamed online. That certainly will be important as time passes. It may be one day possible to stream national finals using YouTube as a platform. Given that YouTube intends their TV channels will cater towards more niche areas rather than mainstream television. This possibly could lead to a Eurovision oriented channel online. [That's purely speculation by the way]

YouTube may also affect national finals. The advent of the "YouTube generation" of artists, to an extent, has changed the way the music industry works. This has had an impact on Eurovision as we now also see that "YouTube Artists" such as Peter Nalitch and Buranowskie Babuszki coming through in national finals. For performers or people who get famous Eurovision may offer an alternative method of getting before a huge audience very quickly. Other television shows, such as Britains Got Talent have turned to YouTube to find budding contestants.

Overall it is likely that these performers will bring more entertainment to the contest. But the other service that YouTube offers is it allows a national final performance to go viral. Buranowskie Babuszki's song "Party For Everyone" has done very well in under a week on YouTube. What will viral songs and YouTube do for Eurovision? Will this actually bring Buranowskie Babuszki a good result? These are all questions that will be answered in the future. All we can do for now is wait.

The last 10 years have seen an expansion of the Web 2.0 and social media. As this as occurred there has been a huge change in the way fans of the contest interact with one another. While I suspect that this will continue to change I also think that the pace of change will be somewhat slower. However I think we are only beginning to feel the effects of the Web 2.0 on the actual songs showcased in Eurovision.

Bad Irish Accents, Mispronunciations But An Excellent Podcast

From time to time we find some nice articles and things, and normally, as those of you who follow me on Twitter know I retweet these. However I am very impressed with the Podcast from JOYEurovision by 94.9 radio in Austrialia assessing Irish Eurovision History since 1965. What I love about this is it contextualises the nature of Irish Eurovision Entries and why they were picked. The overall theme of Irish Eurovision history that I took from the podcast was that Ireland is a conservative country trying to find it's voice in an ever changing Eurovision.


As an Irish Eurovision fan I think that there are a couple of small points to mention largely to put the record straight.

• The 1965 and 1967 entries are well respected in Ireland and are still remembered by people of that era.  
• During the early nineties the shift in Eurovision juries preferences to more conservative tastes allowed Ireland who continued with more conservative tastes to flourish. Interestingly in 1996 the top three songs were all rather similar which reflected the jury voting patterns of the time.
• Despite the feelings of many fans Ireland's winner in 1994 is one the most beloved of all our winners by the average Irish non-Eurovision fan with it topping many polls of the Irish Public in terms of our winners. It remains one of my top 5 all time Eurovison songs. 
• Ireland only once gave 12 points to the UK and that was to Love Shine A Light, which a year from the Good Friday Agreement was hardly surprising.
• Ireland only once gave 

However in spite of a couple of minor flaws the podcast is worth a listen if you have some time to spare. You might even learn a thing or two.

Listen to the podcast here.

Eurovision Sabermetrics: Critical Reaction

I'm fully aware that some may find this article a bit heavy. If there is anything you are unclear on please feel free to get in touch.


Over on EscInsight they have lanuched a considerable debate on their Eurovision Sabermetrics. The application of sabermetrics (normally seen in baseball) to Eurovision. This debate got going today with Elaine Dove's excellent article on ESCInsight. I aim to strengthen her argument by looking not at the emotion of Eurovision and its songs but by looking at how difficult to get Eurovision predictions right and discussing the limitations of how they went about figuring out Sabermetrics. We are not here to undermine their work but to give the health warning that comes with looking at these things. I would also state that I am discussing this under the principals that are learned in management, management science and technology and largely focus on arguments from a decision analytics. Different people may use different concepts and ideas to demonstrate similar things.

The first point is the limitations of computers. While it may seem all very well that we can input data into a programmable machine and come out with answers we cannot be completely sure that those answers are completely correct, particularly when we have to balance many factors as we do in Eurovision. In a documentary by the BBC All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace (Episode 2), it discussed the way computers were perceived in the 1950's when it was thought that the whole world could be broken down into logical systems that could be analysed by computers, there by eliminating all of the randomness in the world. However they discovered that human behaviour itself was totally random and decided that computers could not do what they thought they could. Similarly in Eurovision we really don't know for sure how people will vote. As this is something that is a part of human behaviour we believe that it is ultimately random.

Smart people will point out that Sabermetrics work in baseball so why not Eurovision? Well, in my view Eurovision is to rare an event and too changeable/random (in terms of competing countries, song styles, combinations of countries and people musical tastes) that we can properly analyse it to the level that we can predict 10/10 songs. (I actually think that it might be possible but not without knowing all the songs.) Also Sabermetrics of a baseball team would be more constant over a shorter period of time as players stay the same. Countries in ESC don't actually send the same singer 3/4 times in a row and thereby comparisons are harder.

The second point is about how we make decisions. In something as complex as picking who will qualify for the Eurovision song contest we must weight up different aspects. As ESCInsight have not explained the weights used for their selections we assume that they are largely the same. The two areas the stated they focused on was voting history and relationships.

What are weights in decision making? Well imagine if you had just two pieces of data about a country qualifying. The running order position gave the song a 0.2 chance of qualification and the countries history gave it 0.4 chance. Put together it would give the country a 0.3 chance. However if you thought that running order was twice as important as history you would give them weights of 2 and 1 respectively which would actually only give the country a   0.26 chance. This is a VERY simiplistic model purely to demonstrate how this works. I believe that these weights are ever changing and cannot be fully determined. (I do accept we can get close to determining them).

There also is the problem about how we go about using historical voting patterns in preparing these statistics, some would say all historical data from, say, 2004 is useful. Others would say only after 2010 is useful because of the jury/public mix. Others could argue that data from more recent contests could be weighted more heavily than other contests, while still taking them into account.

Overall I think what is critically missing from ESCInsight's Sabermetrics is a description of how it was calculated and/or the resulting figures that came out of the program. I respect what they are trying to do but the primary aim of this piece is to raise the point that there are a HUGE number of factors (some of which I have pointed out) which determine how a song will do. There are a variety of ways with which these can be interrupted and how we come up with statistics for Eurovision is debateable. Most importantly: EUROVISION PREDICTIONS ARE AN ART NOT A SCIENCE!!!!

The Exciting Weekend Ahead - And I'm Not Around

So from the top this weekend:

Finland hold their first show of UMK - can't pronounce what it stands for. I never was big into talent shows of this nature when it comes to Eurovision, so I'm not put out that I'm missing it.

Norway - Semi Final 2 tomorrow evening. While I may not be watching I will be supporting PLUMBO who I think are simply excellent. Minne-Oh and Malin are also favourites of mine. I think there is a good chance that they will all get through but I would be prepared to bet that Rikke Nordmann may get in over Malin. You can read our review of Semi 2 here.

Iceland - Iceland's third and final semi-final is on Saturday, we are hoping to see GRETA SALOME go through to the final with a second song. I can't call the second finalist but we are sure the later will make it  through. Our review of the show is here.

Hungary holds Semi 1 tomorrow also. We are unimpressed with their songs so far and don't particularly look forward to it. Our review of their songs is here.

Finally France will present their song on Sunday (16:00) from the bit that we heard of the song we are largely unimpressed with it.

While I may not be at home I hope to be on Twitter a little bit over the weekend and will try my best to see the results and have a full piece of reaction by Sunday evening.

News Flash (Again)

Our usual news flash which involves bullet points, condensing the news into bite-sized chunks. Here we go....

• Rambo Amadeus will sing "Euro Neuro" at ESC for Montenegro.....that should give something to laugh about.
• If your looking to laugh at something now, Georiga only recieved 13 songs for their selection. Last year they had 50 and sent Elderine....imagine what crap they will send this year.
• Ireland will announce their candidates for Eurosong shortly (I expect by Monday) and the songs will be revealed on the Mooney Show on RTÉ Radio 1 on Thursday 9th February - More information as it comes.
• According to nicerodds.co.uk Denmark are the early favourites to win ESC 2012. 

Super Songs, Sexy Women And Your Left With Mixed Feelings

After one of the biggest nights of Nordic Semi-Finals and Finals here is my reaction:

Iceland: It is quite clear that the semi-final in Iceland did not generate the same enthusiasm as the semi-final last month. My favourite Simbi og Hrútspungarnir made it through as did Regína Ósk (from Euroband). While we would have preferred Guðrún Árný Karlsdóttir 1/2 is not bad given that we did not see the live performance. Ws still think that the two qualifiers last week were a lot better.

Norway: Norway had the first semi-final of Melodi Grad Prix 2012. There was the usual mix of songs that we would expect of MGP. Nora Foss Al-Jabri came first with The Carburetorsin second and Reidun Saether came in third. I predicted two out of three, but I underestimated Nora’s ability to get votes. Instead I had thought that Lisa Stokke’s song was the most likely to go through. I thought her song was stronger. With the benefit of hindsight Nora had better staging and styling. The only one that surprised me was the super sexy performance from Irresisrible. It was a shame they didn’t cut the rap from the song.

Denmark: Last night saw the 3^rd song of this ESC 2012 being picked. Soluna Samay will sing for Denmark in Baku. I haven’t seen any performances other than the winning one. I was surprised by the winner (but not shocked). I was just briefly switching in and out of Twitter during the evening, and was very surprised by the winner. However after seeing the performance it is very clear why this won. The performance was a little different and the dress worn by Soluna was very original. Full review of the song will be up by next weekend. We predicted Chirstian Brons and Patrik Issakson. However based on the Twitter coverage I saw their song was vocally poor. Soluna won with both the support of the juries and public. Congratulations to her.

Norway: Part 1

In the run up to MGP 2012 we publish the reviews of Semi-Final 1

Irresistible - While I do like this song, I think that this kind of generic type of song that does not pack a real punch will not actually manage to qualify for the final. The song might look good on stage but will struggle at this level of competition. Grade: C-

Kim Andre Rysstad - I really like the vocals behind this song. It builds wonderfully but once again his voice makes the song. If this was not perfect on the night this would seriously hinder the song. The final verses of the song are pitched really well. Grade: B

Reidun Saether - I never have nor ever will critise this song. As I have previously noted I think that if any song that I have heard so far deserves to go to Eurovision it is this song. Think about it Norway! I just love the slow start and strong vocals and the chorus always brings a smile to my face - and I have listened to it to many times. This could do well sandwiched between two ballads. Grade: A+

Rudi Myntevik - This does seem just a little plain and dated given the standard that is in this semi-final. Depending on the performance this will either be well received or forgotten after the very different song from Reidun.  I would like this in a poor quality national final. Grade: D

Lisa Stokke - It was quiet surprising to see that this was one of the favourites given the style of song (a little old fashioned) however I do like it and if Lisa is a charismatic singer than this will not be an easy song beat. Grade: B-

United - Boring and crap. This just doesn't work on so many levels. Grade: G

Nora Foss al-Jabri - This is the favourite to win according to Betsson. It is a very good ballad but a little Disney. Really with female ballads this will all come down to the voice of the singer on the night. This has everything that I would hope for in a ballad but I still don't understand why it is the favourite. Grade: B-

The Carburetors - Before I start to complain about this song I would like to point out to that I respect this song for its quality and genre. Every year we see this style of song in MGP and it never wins. This is just too accessible to be good rock. And it is not pop/rock - well it is but the first 30 seconds try not to be. Would you keep your hand out of the fire after hearing this? Grade: C-

Will Armenia actually be in Baku?

Today word came through that we can expect to see 43 countries in Baku for ESC 2012. While the participation list was almost a month late (we would normally expect it between 25th Decemeber and the first week of January), the big question answered today was Will Armenia be in Baku? And the answer is yes.

But what does this actually tell us? Well all that this means is that Armenia have stated they are going to Baku and they have paid the participation fee. Now this is fairly important. As we all know there is considerable tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan this was made clear in the 2009 contest when issues over the postcards arose. However by getting this far Armenia have shown that they are prepared to come to Baku. The biggest concern is safety. Armenians don't come into Azerbaijan and (up until recently) even if you have an Armenian stamp on your passport you could not enter Azerbaijan. These rules will have to be relaxed given that some fans traveled to JESC in Armenia last year. This shows the level of intolerance that exists.

So in spite of the EBU's announcement, the HoD for Armenia stated today that even though they are on the list, they are not 100% sure that they will go, citing safety concerns as an issue. While Slovakia may have decided to come to Eurovision last year as withdrawing would be to expensive, Armenia may opt to stay at home and as I say "be live chickens".

While I am not against Azerbaijan hosting the contest, I do believe that the EBU will have to work harder to ensure that Azerbaijan plays ball. They may even have to be prepared to change the venue at short notice. But whether Armenia are in Baku or not may show us just how far the EBU are prepared to go to keep politics out of Eurovision

Iceland Semi Final 2: Review

As I said previously Super Monday appears to be today. Because it is hard to get our hands on the Norwegian and Danish songs in full we are publishing a review of the songs in Iceland's semi-final. 

Ellert Jóhannsson - This is a very bouncy song. However it does have an old fashioned sound to it. I don't think that this is going to get out of the semi-final but I still like it. Grade: C

Simbi og Hrútspungarnir - This reminds me of Father'n'sons in the first semi-final. But this has a much stronger Icelandic feel to it. It builds well and is pleasant to listen to. Grade: C+

Rósa Birgitta Ísfeld - Given the standard this just doesn't do it for me at all. It lacks a really tune, the singer does not covey anything that is required to make this stand out. Grade: E+

Regína Ósk - An Icelandic R'n'b which may or may not do well depending on how it is performed. Grade: D+

Guðrún Árný Karlsdóttir - While I know that I give out about the number of boring female ballads, I think this one is done very well. The delicate nature of the song is dealt with well by the singer. I really think this is the kind of female ballad that we were looking for. Grade: B

Super Monday!

Keen watchers of the contest national final calender will notice that really there is no "Super" day. Traditionally this would be a day that 4 or 5 songs would be picked for ESC. This year that is less visible. This year we are seeing a huge spread of the days that countries are picking on. However while I am sure that we will see more dates come through and we will have a Super Saturday (or Friday) today is what matters.

Today is Super Monday as during the night many countries (Scandinavian) released their songs.
Iceland, Denmark and Norway have all released some songs and we have started reviewing already!

The week ahead

I don't have any reviews in ready to go yet (working on Hungary) but now that another National Final season week is over it's time to look to the week ahead.

Next will be a week of information more than just a week of selections. Unser Star fur Baku will be on on Thursday and semi-finals will be on in Norway, Iceland and Hungary on Saturday. Also on Saturday Denmark will select their entrant.

This week I am starting back in college but I also am expecting a deluge of information about various aspects of many countries plans including RTÉ's and BBC's.

On Monday Iceland will release their songs. I also expect Norway and Denmark to release clips with full songs arriving later in the week. I'm sure we will hear much more than we expect anyway.

Reaction to tonight's semi finals.

Latvia: We have had reasonable success in dumping a lot of the crap songs in the semi finals. We are happy to see Mad Show Boys made it to the final as did Robert Petersons (our second favorite).

Bulgaria: Our three favorites made it through the marathon show. Ceco Elvisa & Daniela, Desislava and New 5 (in that order). As with Latvia many boring ballads were dumped - Thankfully.

Iceland: Sadly Íris Hólm didn't make it but we were very impressed with Greta Salome & Jonsi.

Iceland will hold their next semi-final on 21 January with a Final on February 11th

Latvia will hold their final on February 18th. Bulgaria will hold theirs on the 29th February

Running Order Research Paper

Today we take a break from Eurovision song reviews and present a short research paper. This is the first research paper we have produced here at The Best Eurovision Blog. It is short – because I don’t have the time to research heavily on the contest. And I don’t think the average reader really wants to read a thesis. I know there are some who would just love if I did this but you can go and do your own research. This research is not meant to be especially academic; however it is from that place in the world of Fandom that is somewhere between over knowledgeable fan and academic.

Introduction

The focus of this piece is to discuss the results of research carried out by me on the importance of the running order in The Eurovision Song Contest 2006-2011. This piece is split into two parts; the first part discusses the importance and trends in the running order in contests that have less than 20 songs, specifically the importance of the running order in relation to the Semi-Finals 2008-2011. 2008 saw the introduction of a new smaller style of semi-final which no longer takes from the main show itself.

The second part will discuss the recent running order trends in the finals 2006-2011 and the semi-finals 2006 and 2007. These are larger than the other shows and contain 22 songs and up. Given that the EBU reference group has rejected the idea that voting from the start of the show influences the vote that possibility has been disregarded here too.

Unfortunately there is not enough data in existence to actually look at how much the jury voting may affect the results.

Fan Theory

Four slots, above all others are studied strongly by fans. These are the first, second, second last and last slots. It is considered that a song in the second (or death slot) will not do as well as it might in other slots. Many fans point out that no song that sung from the second slot has ever won the competition. In a piece of analysis of the running order by ESCToday in 2009, they believed that the first slot was a poor position to be drawn in and suggested that this in some way was similar to the second slot.

The last slots have often been said to have the opposite effect. The second last slot is often seen as being the strongest slot to be in. Many countries have won the contest from the second last slot. Similarly the last slot is seen to have similar behaviour patterns to the second last slot.

Overall the general consensus is that the later in the running order you are drawn the greater chance you have of winning. This is a logical argument, given that a song performed later in the running order should be fresher in the voters mind. I also remember when I was not a fan per se but I was watching Eurovision, I’d start and decide say, that the fifth song was the best. But then would come song twelve, which would overtake song five and this would be repeated a few times more as the evening progressed. If this is the routine then the songs performing later should have a better chance.

Results I

In order to assess the success of songs in a particular slot the first and last ten songs in both semi-final one and two of each Eurovision Song Contest 2008-2011 were averaged out. This gave us a total of 8 contests to look at. Fans generally accept that the importance of running order does differ in the Semi-Finals; however no one has developed ideas about how this occurs.

We begin by looking at the average results of the first 10 slots

Fig 1 shows the average points awarded to songs performed in slots 1-10 (2008-2011)

As we can see from the graph there is no clear pattern emerging. While the average score is trending upwards there is no real explanation as to why there would be such a difference between songs singing in slots beside each other. The most notable aspect is that the second slot is above the first slot and is sixth out of ten in terms of average score. However when we look at the standard deviation an interesting trend emerges.

Fig 2 shows the standard deviation for the averages above.

For those who do not understand deviation: This shows the average amount the data is from the average. The lower the deviation, the more consistent the results from that slot are in the contest.

Interestingly the three highest scoring slots are 6, 9 and 10 however they also have the lowest deviation which means that they are strong slots. So when the awkward moment occurs at the draw in March that a country has to select a slot in the first part of the semi-final, these are the numbers to go for.

The other point that the results show is that the number two death slot does not exist. In fact it shows that while the slot is not a bad one its score is on average below the average number of points needed to qualify (62 points). However the high deviation would suggest that the results there are very volatile. Only slots 4, 6, 9 and 10 have an average greater than 62 points.

Results II

Part two looks at the average scores for the final 10 ten songs in a semi-final (Smart Maths types out there might point out that there is an overlap with results I here. I understand but this is the easiest way of presenting the results.) The results are shown here in fig 3.

Fig 3 shows the average scores of the last 10 slots

Please note: This graph has to be read right to left i.e. 2 refers to the second last song. 5 refers to the fifth last song.

The most important trend here is the last two slots. Here the graph rises steeply towards the end. This is a trend that emphasises the importance of being drawn in the last two slots. On average these score over 100 points each, with the last slot scoring 4 points more than second last. The number of songs that have won from singing last is also quite remarkable such as Greece in 2008 and 2011 and Turkey in 2010. Only one song has failed to qualify from this slot (Netherlands, 2009). Six slots score more than 62 points; they are the last two, the sixth, seventh and eighth last and the tenth last slot.

Though I have not published the Deviation of the scores, the results are notably more consistent than those in the first half.

Results III

We now turn our attention to the third section to looking at the opening of the longer show (Semi-Finals 2006 and 2007, Finals 2006-2011). This gives 8 longer shows to look at. 

Fig 4 shows the average scores of the first 10 slots in a long show (>20 songs)

This once again shows very little. However it show confirm the number 2 death slot theory, but notice that slot 4 is slightly lower than slot two; however slot 2 also has a much lower deviation to slot 4 (32.5/56.7) - meaning slot 2 has a more consistent low score. Slot 7 does appear to be the strongest however it has a very high deviation compared to the other high placed slots like the first slot. Despite being one of the hardest slots to get out of in the semi-final first does appear to be a strong place in the longer show.

Results IV

Finally we consider the importance of the last ten slots in the longer show or final. These results are summarised on the chart below. 

Fig 5 shows the average scores of the final 10 places in a longer show.

Please note: This graph has to be read right to left i.e. 2 refers to the second last song.

There is clear advantages in the running order can be seen in this graph. In the first ten songs the average did not go above 90 except in one slot. Here only two songs average below 90 points. While there may seem to be advantages to singing from the position of eighth last, when the standard deviation is considered slots 5^th-8^th last are strong enough to reach for a serious position from. Second last is also a very good slot. However this graph, overall, would not suggest that there is a perfect slot. Instead comparing fig 4 with fig 5 would point to an overall trend that the later you sing in the final the better.

Conclusion

Overall we have discussed the ideas around the running order and have highlighted the importance of the running order. However in reality the data would suggest that there is no perfect slot to sing in to win. It takes a good song with a great singer for Europe to fall in love with it. We have proven that where you generally appear in the running order in the final can impact on your scores. The “number two death slot” may exist in the final but in the semi-final this is not visible.

Personally speaking I think the running order ultimately did affected the outcome of last year’s contest, as most strong songs were placed in the first half of the final which we have proven is not as successful as the first. I also believe with the advent of the semi-finals people are more likely to follow a song they voted for in the semi-final in the final and this has diluted the real sting in the running order that existed before the semi-finals were introduced. But there is a clear problem when the winning song has not sung in the first half of the contest since 2004.

Unfortunately there is not enough data in existence to actually look at how much the jury voting may affect the impact of the running order on results. However in 2009 and 2011 three out of the top five placed songs came from the first half of the show. It is logical that, given that the juries should have listened to songs in advance of the contest then the running order should be irrelevant to them.

Future Trends

My guess is that in the future as the juries continue it should allow songs to score better in the first half. However given that public support will be needed to win overall then the winner will generally come from the latter half of the show. I think as time passes and we can assess jury impact on the semi-final in this regard then the running order will become less important in the semi-final but the last two slots will retain their strength.

We hope that you have enjoyed our short research paper. It does take quiet a lot of patience to get the  maths behind this right and then takes time to type up. If we have the time we hope to do another piece on neighbourly voting between Ireland and the UK. The speed at which that happens overall will depend on how it is received so if you liked it share it with other Eurovision fans. Rules on reproduction of pieces on website can be found in the Contact Us! section. Comments, as always, are welcomed.

A little thought

Sometimes we forget the difference between a blog and a website. Sometimes I worry this diary of Eurovision opinion is to news driven. Sometimes I try to change this. Like Now.

This evening I was watching a programme on RTÉ celebrating 50 years of broadcasting. One of the parts featured discussed peoples memory of ESC. People spoke of being let stay up late with their family to watch Eurovision. Sometimes we lose sight of this. We forget happy memories of being together, celebrating this wonderful event. Before I was what you might call a full time fan, I remember being together as a family for ESC. This documentary brought back some of these forgotten memories.

Day 2

Well, we've made it to day 2. So at least no one has asked for the blog to be taken down and if the stats are correct we had a whole 3 visitors yesterday. Thank you. If ever this blog becomes world famous at least they can say they were the first people to visit. However the odds of this becoming world famous are slim, so anyhow.


As this is an Irish Eurovision blog I felt the first story I should do should be something to do with Eurovision in Ireland. As a result a piece appeared on RTÉ yesterday that Crystal Swing may try enter the Eurovision for Ireland next year. For those who may not have heard of Crystal Swing: They are a group comprising of a mother; her son and daughter. They have become [slighty] famous in Ireland over the last year since their appearance on the Ellen DeGenres show in the US [paid for by the Irish Taxpaper]

Now look, the Americans love their kind of Toora Loora Irish music but really they would be a bigger joke for Eurovision than Dustin and he was the joke to top all jokes. They don't sing songs that have any sort of shock factor to them. They would find it difficult to get any sort of real vote for them to qualify. On top of all this the juries would fall asleep watching them. This would not be the best we could send.


Now I have no problem with them being included in the line up of the National Final but really in the Eurovision for Ireland is a bit of a push. But these people are 2/1 with Paddy Power to be our entry. Until a real competitor comes along I will simply say that I don't support anyone for this years contest.  


Anyway I will try not to be so negative in the future. 


Over the coming weeks and months I'm going to try to give a little time each day to adjusting the blog in terms of design. If you have any suggestions please let me know by living a comment.

Cead Míle Fáilte Chuig Mo Bhlog (Welcome To My Blog)

First of all well done for finding this blog. I warmly welcome you to this little corner of the web that I run. I never wrote a blog before so please be patient and don't expect everything. 

First and foremost this is a Eurovision blog. It is about the great annual event that is the Eurovision Song Contest. As we are about 11 and half months out from the contest this seemed like the right kind of time to set up a blog ahead of the next contest, but we won't stop there, oh no! There is so much out there besides seven and a half hours of television in May.

This is an Irish Eurovision Blog and take pride in supporting Ireland though the contest. However I will  try to keep you informed of what is going on in as many other countries as possible and  keeping a close eye on the Junior Eurovision Song Contest (JESC) and the second best TV show in the world Melodifestivalen (MF). 

I will try not to be a news site but to actually look at what is going on around the Eurovision world and to express a genuine and sincere opinion on the events. 

What is seldom is wonderful so I will try to keep my posts as concise as possible and please don't expect and daily blog. Feel free to comment particularly if you have any suggestions for the blog, and I will try to interact with you as I can.


I called this The Best Eurovision Blog (BEB) and I intend to live up to it.