Eurovision Sabermetrics: Critical Reaction

I'm fully aware that some may find this article a bit heavy. If there is anything you are unclear on please feel free to get in touch.


Over on EscInsight they have lanuched a considerable debate on their Eurovision Sabermetrics. The application of sabermetrics (normally seen in baseball) to Eurovision. This debate got going today with Elaine Dove's excellent article on ESCInsight. I aim to strengthen her argument by looking not at the emotion of Eurovision and its songs but by looking at how difficult to get Eurovision predictions right and discussing the limitations of how they went about figuring out Sabermetrics. We are not here to undermine their work but to give the health warning that comes with looking at these things. I would also state that I am discussing this under the principals that are learned in management, management science and technology and largely focus on arguments from a decision analytics. Different people may use different concepts and ideas to demonstrate similar things.

The first point is the limitations of computers. While it may seem all very well that we can input data into a programmable machine and come out with answers we cannot be completely sure that those answers are completely correct, particularly when we have to balance many factors as we do in Eurovision. In a documentary by the BBC All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace (Episode 2), it discussed the way computers were perceived in the 1950's when it was thought that the whole world could be broken down into logical systems that could be analysed by computers, there by eliminating all of the randomness in the world. However they discovered that human behaviour itself was totally random and decided that computers could not do what they thought they could. Similarly in Eurovision we really don't know for sure how people will vote. As this is something that is a part of human behaviour we believe that it is ultimately random.

Smart people will point out that Sabermetrics work in baseball so why not Eurovision? Well, in my view Eurovision is to rare an event and too changeable/random (in terms of competing countries, song styles, combinations of countries and people musical tastes) that we can properly analyse it to the level that we can predict 10/10 songs. (I actually think that it might be possible but not without knowing all the songs.) Also Sabermetrics of a baseball team would be more constant over a shorter period of time as players stay the same. Countries in ESC don't actually send the same singer 3/4 times in a row and thereby comparisons are harder.

The second point is about how we make decisions. In something as complex as picking who will qualify for the Eurovision song contest we must weight up different aspects. As ESCInsight have not explained the weights used for their selections we assume that they are largely the same. The two areas the stated they focused on was voting history and relationships.

What are weights in decision making? Well imagine if you had just two pieces of data about a country qualifying. The running order position gave the song a 0.2 chance of qualification and the countries history gave it 0.4 chance. Put together it would give the country a 0.3 chance. However if you thought that running order was twice as important as history you would give them weights of 2 and 1 respectively which would actually only give the country a   0.26 chance. This is a VERY simiplistic model purely to demonstrate how this works. I believe that these weights are ever changing and cannot be fully determined. (I do accept we can get close to determining them).

There also is the problem about how we go about using historical voting patterns in preparing these statistics, some would say all historical data from, say, 2004 is useful. Others would say only after 2010 is useful because of the jury/public mix. Others could argue that data from more recent contests could be weighted more heavily than other contests, while still taking them into account.

Overall I think what is critically missing from ESCInsight's Sabermetrics is a description of how it was calculated and/or the resulting figures that came out of the program. I respect what they are trying to do but the primary aim of this piece is to raise the point that there are a HUGE number of factors (some of which I have pointed out) which determine how a song will do. There are a variety of ways with which these can be interrupted and how we come up with statistics for Eurovision is debateable. Most importantly: EUROVISION PREDICTIONS ARE AN ART NOT A SCIENCE!!!!

Our 100th Post

As Italy confirms it will be in Baku we mark our 100th post after about seven months online.

We'd like to use this opportunity to thank everyone for supporting us through these months and look forward to important months ahead.

I include a photo of the editors desk in the head office of The Best Eurovision Blog for your enjoyment.

I'd like to say that everything there is to do with the blog but only the computer in the right hand is. (Oh and there's a copy of The History of the Eurovision Song Contest in locker.)
Anyone else want to share the photo of where they write a blog from?

Anyway to celebrate we include links to our most popular posts:
Why Ireland needs Jedward for Eurovision!?
A book review of ESCInsights Junior Eurovision Book.
Review of the Cypriot National Final

.....and the post I am most proud of
The importance of the running order at Eurovision: A research paper.

Book Review: It's Cold and There Are Children Singing

“Those who can cook become chiefs; those who can’t become food critics”

In keeping with their alternative coverage of Eurovision last month ESCInsight published a book on JESC, titled: It’s Cold and There are Children Singing by Ewan Spence. This is a mould breaking book not so much for the content but the fact that a book might exist about any aspect of the Eurovision Song Contest and not be the grand history of the contest by John Kennedy O’Connor. Neither writing nor reviewing books is a particularly pleasant but it is an important task, that’s why I’m doing this. Even though the book itself is only 13000 or so words long, this still requires a review of over 800 words long. When I started writing this I wanted to write a review but at times it turned into more of a critical discussion. I think this is required given how long the book is published.

No book about Eurovision, for Eurovision fans is going to be an easy write. It is no easy task to write facts for us hard-core fans while at the same time balancing this with stories that we might not have heard in the daily podcasts or reports on other sites. This raises a fundamental question; what is this book for? When I bought it of Amazon for $2.34 (£1.67) my first though was “This better not be a summary of what already came out of Armenia in reports/podcasts.” However by attaching a price to something you’re automatically raising the bar. That’s why I wrote this review in the first place, as some would say in Ireland “You’re playing senior hurling now lads”.

Two major themes come out of the book, the first being the fairness, togetherness and community of Junior Eurovision. Spence regularly points out how fair the whole contest is, from conduct of the Children, to the general spirit of the entire contest. These arguments are made in a very sincere and honest way and at times seem to lead on a reflection of the stark differences between the Adult and Junior contents. Unfortunately, he doesn’t actually do this. Without actually saying it Spence does appear quite disappointed that Georgia won the contest, not because he didn’t like it but because despite all the fair play and honesty Georgia was the only one that didn’t always play by the spirit of the contest. However as my favourite song overall (though not on the night) I still was delighted to see it win.

The second theme is for those much more familiar with Spence’s work with the contest. The theme is the cooperation by fans (I refuse to refer to them as journalists). Spence has long argued that there is much more scope for cooperation between competing sites when it comes to writing. Clearly at the Junior Eurovision Contest this was the case. Sometimes it can be wonderful to see your vision on a small scale. It allows you to dream of bigger things……

My favourite aspect of this book is the travel writing. This book is not simply about JESC. It is about adventures in Armenia. Often when we talk about Eurovision we forget the important aspects of the host country very quickly. As a lover of travel the book gives you real insight into travelling in Armenia everything from visas to currency. Those of us who really want to see the ins and outs of these foreign lands, this book takes you there. Having only been to Eastern Europe once (to Bulgaria), there are still interesting parallels between the two cultures, both such as using the French word for thank you. Travel, culture and people are often forgotten as integral parts of our understanding of the contest but are too often ignored in coverage. This book is refreshing in the way in which it gives you a real feel of Armenia.

I think what it is missing is reaction to the winner. We are bombarded with different opinions about the contest all through the Eurovision week/fortnight. However we never hear their reactions once the contest is over and even when we do it is very short and lack detail and reflection. This book could be a good platform to do that. Because it does not it actually is a missed opportunity.

I guess this was not exactly the normal review. I think it is more a piece of Eurovision literature peer reviewed by another fan. I guess I was not sure what to expect when I bought it, but I have enjoyed it. It may not take you behind the scenes of JESC but does offer a diary of a Eurovision fan at the contest and for those of us not at the contest this is a valuable read. Most importantly the two major themes discussed above give you much greater insight into the junior contest and contrast it more strongly with the adult contest in a way which those of us sitting comfortably at home never saw before. I recommend this book to all Eurovision fans, who wish they were there and to anyone who want a deeper understanding of Armenia. Well Done, Ewan, I enjoyed this.

It’s Cold and There Are Children Singing by Ewan Spence is available from Amazon (For kindle only) for £1.67/$2.34. You can download an app for your computer/iPhone/Android for kindle directly from Amazon.

Why Eurovision?

ESCInsight's latest series is on their senior writers. How they fell in love with the contest and why they still love it. Today's article by Samantha Ross of the ESCInsider blog. However one quote just stood out at me which I think pretty much sums up why we all follow Eurovision. 


'Asking me “Why Eurovision?” is akin to asking me “why pizza?”  It’s definitely not the world’s healthiest food, and at times it’s downright terrible, but it satisfies a craving that nothing else can provide, and it’s always best when shared.' (Ross: 2011). 


A link can be found here