Melodifestivalen 2012: Analysis and Reactions

Last night Melodifestivalen was on. Despite the fairly vast amount of criticism of the final this year, very few people actually put their money where their mouth was and watch Romania. 

So what happened? Well, all songs were performed and voted on. Loreen won with her great song Euphoria. So let's take a look at how Sweden voted and what the pattern might tell us about Melodifestivalen.

Songs and Success

While the winner of Melodifestivalen was pretty much certain and Danny came in second as expected. However the next few placings were surprising. David and Ulrik tied for third place. They were a bit ahead of where they were expected to be. The big surprise in my view was the poor showing by Molly Sanden and Lisa Miskovsky. 

How does Sweden vote?

Sweden use the same method to calculate the winner as Denmark. Juries around Europe award points to their favourite songs using a standard set of points (1,2,4,6,8,10,12). This means that one jury will award 1+2+4+6+8+10+12= 43 points. Eleven Juries award 11 x 43 = 473 points. The Public then award their own set of points 473 points. This is broken down based on the percentage of televotes it receives. So a song that gets 10% of the televotes gets 10% x 473 = 47.3 points. This then rounded to the nearest whole number.

This method was used last year but last year the juries did not have a clear winner. (Sanna, Eric and Danny were within five points of one another.) However as Eric was the winner of the televoting by a good margin (8.8%) he received 42 points more than Danny. 

Voting Patterns 

An interesting pattern emerged in the televoting. The table shows how much of the televote the top two songs took. The table beside them shows the top two in last years scoring. The top two this year took an unprecedented amount of the votes.

As a result of the 55% taken by Loreen and Danny there was a lot less votes than last year to share out among the others. This lead to the jury having much more say in the outcome of the 3rd-10th place rankings. For example Molly Sandén came second last on the televote but yet had a good margin in the jury vote. Despite a 5th place from the juries she came 5th overall. 

How did the juries vote in percentage terms? Well we converted the jury vote i.e. expressed it as a percentage of 473 points. Comparing it with the public percentages with jury percentages also helps to understand how voting worked. N.B. - Series 1 is jury votes, series 2 is public votes. (I'm not an amzing Excel wizard, sorry).

The other notable thing is that Loreen won the contest with a record number of votes in absolute terms. She pulled in a massive 670,551 votes which according to this SVT article is a record. The article is well worth a read.

Reactions

Eurovision fans are broadly happy with Swedens result and there is widespread recognition of Loreen as an exceptional artist even if she was not everyone's favourite. A number of older fans think that this is a bad choice for Sweden comparing Loreen with Kati Wolf last year who did well on fan polls but came 22nd in the final. I think people who argue that may be slightly out of touch with Eurovision Music - but that's just an opinion. However: Let the record show I believed on the 11th March 2012 I believed that Loreen was the most likely to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2012

In Sweden the fact that Loreen won seems to be rather popular but there is a couple of juicy stories from Melodifestivalen for those of us who like to take a peak at the Daily Mail.

Bjorn Ranelid has stated that only one Swedish writer wished him good luck in Melodifestivalen. Bjorn states that he now knows who his friends are and that Swedish writers have show their true colours (That's pretty cold - Ed.)

Danny has decided to be a sore loser and ran from the "green room/space" before Loreen could do a reprise. He also didn't take part in the after parties. He just went home to his girlfriends house. Today he said that Sweden had made a bad decision to send a schlager entry with Loreen. (And sorry Danny could you clarify What was your song then?) Anyway a couple of artists in Sweden have come out to say that they feel sorry for him and that they understand how much he wanted it. We just think that the better song won. Hard Lucj Danny. Well Done Loreen.

And Finally....

Of all the surprising things to come Melodifestivalen the amazing Sarah Dawn Finer Lynda Woodruff went down a storm with fans (while also poking the Brits, which we welcome.) Huge well done to Sarah for her hilarious piece. 

Abridged Melodifestivalen Reviews

We now have the 10 songs which are going to fight it out for Eurovision. This year Sweden offers us a most diverse range of music. Earlier today I put up a Podcast with Melodifestivalen Reviews and for those who missed it missed our popular Rough Guide to Melodifestivalen

David Lindgren – This is a good song, kind of like In The Club but better. David is a good charismatic singer, but song is not strong enough to win. Might take a couple of votes from International Jury’s but I think he needs Danny to put on a poor performance. 6/10

Thorsten Flinck - Emotional but simple. Very like Caroline Af Ugglas’s song in 2009. However it is not as magical, and feels somewhat disjointed. I am unsure how this will do on night; could be forgotten given the other songs. 5/10.

Dead By April - An excellent rock song until it changes and sounds like my dog having a fit. Though it will attract rock fans it is not causing enough excitement. Little chance of winning but could pick up a few. 3/10.

Lisa Miskovsky – This is a great relaxing song after DBA but very much like Anna in 2010. It is very layered; cannot always make out Lisa in it. I would prefer something more stripped back. For me this is the Dark Horse of contest. It is doing well on Swedish polling too. 8/10.

Top Cats - One of the poorer songs in MF this year. Is that the lead singer from The Lucky Bullets? I don’t think this has a chance of winning. 2/10

Loreen – has a great song with simple staging and it is vocally amazing. The verses are a little messy and she still needs more camera contact. The studio version not near as good as live version and should be changed. It is the favourite by a good distance across all bookies. It’s probably going to win. 9/10

Ulrik Munther - Put through by teen girls from semi-final but they seem to have deserted him. It is a good quality song with a harmonica. It is vocally good however it is really generating enough excitement for the final, considering group behind him. Unlike to do very well. But could steal a couple of votes from Danny. 4/10.

Bjorn Ranelid ft. Sara Li – I just love this. Bjorn looks like my Dad only Dad 10 years younger has less hair and tan. It is a really great song which really works together. Maybe not everyone’s favourite though. I actually suspect that this could have won semi 3. It won’t do well with International Juries. But a high score in televote is conceivable. 10/10

Molly Sandén – This song is very heartfelt, emotional and this comes across on screen. However it is missing something but being a clear cut song I think it could win with the international juries but not televoters. 8/10

Danny Saucedo – Danny has a good song but semi vocals were very poor. The song is overly driven by staging and is heavily reliant on vocal’s in backing track. Danny won’t have it in ESC. Definitely one to beat but if vocally same as last time he might pick up very few votes from Internaitional Juries. He can count on a good televote score though. 4/10

Let us see what Saturday night will bring but my scores are:

• 12 - Bjorn Ranelid ft. Sara Li
• 10 - Loreen
• 8 - Lisa Miskovsky
• 6 - Molly Sandén
• 4 - David Lindgren
• 2 - Thorsten Flinck
• 1 - Danny Saucedo

Above all I hope you enjoy tonight's show and are either pleased or not to disappointed by the result. 

Melodifestivalen show kicks off at 8:00 CET/7:00GMT. 

Surprise! It's A Podcast (Melodifestivalen Final)

Today we are delighted to present our first podcast. This is a bit of an experiment for us and we'd love your feedback. We feel that podcasting is becoming a greater part of Eurovision fandom but also it is important to understand that we cannot write the huge pieces for things like Melodifestivalen that fully communicate my thoughts. If you have not been following Melodifestivalen up until now read our Rough Guide to Melodifestivalen 2012.



It was a delight to do this but four points I would like to make before you send feedback.

1. It ran three minutes longer than I wanted.
2. I pause a lot - I am trying to work on that.
3. I would love to add jingles or something so as it is not just voice. 
4. Before anyone from Ireland asks even though I am from Dublin I speak with a Tipperary accent. This is because most of my family is from Tipperary. Please don't stare in surprise like most Dublin people do.

I will put up an abridged script of the Podcast a later stage today. 

Please leave your comments at the bottom of this post. 

A Rough Guide To Melodifestivalen Final

So, as any reader should have noticed by now Melodifestivalen, The Final takes place in Globen this week. So what is in store. Well after four semi-finals and Andra Chansen we have ten songs to go before eleven international juries and the Swedish televoting public.

The Contestants

1. David Lindgren - Shout It Out 
2. Thorsten Flinck Och Revolutionsorkestern - Jag Reser Mig Igen 
3. Dead By April - Mystery
4. Lisa Miskovsky - Why Start A Fire
5. Top Cats - Baby Doll
6. Loreen - Euphoria
7. Ulrik Munther - Soldiers
8. Bjorn Ranelid ft. Sara Li - Mirakel
9. Molly Sandén - Why Am I Crying
10. Danny Saucedo - Amazing

The Scene

In spite of what some fans have said this is shaping up to be a better Melodifestivalen final than the last two years. Nevertheless if your a Eurovision, Melodifestivalen or just someone with nothing to do between 8pm and 10pm CET you should be watching the Melodifestivalen Final. It is always exciting, particularly with the advent of the international juries (I don't have a clue who sits on them or how their picked and would love to know do get in touch if you know).

The Deciders

The winner is decided on by international juries in: Belgium, Bosnia & Herzegovia, UK, Estonia, France Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, Norway, Germany and Ukraine. They award 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 points to their favourite songs. according to Christer Bjorkman, Melodifestivalen producer, the international juries understand how seriously Swedes take Melodifestivalen. 

In terms of trivia France, Ireland and Norway have had juries in the voting for the last two years. Of these Ireland is the most accurate having given the eventual winner 10 points on both occasions. Norway averages 4 and France 6. Of the countries this year UK and Malta were the only ones to award 12 points to Popular last year.

473 points are then distributed to the 10 songs as a percentage proportionate to their percentage in the public televote. The winner is the song with the most points. Since 1999 televoting has been used continuously in Melodifestivalen. With the exception of 2005 and 2008, the winner of the televote has won the overall competition.

The Odds and the Polls

Every year a countless number of polls and odds come out. Eurovision fan poll results are broadly consistent with the results of Melodifestivalen (With the noteable exception of 2010). The leader of the polls (both Eurovision fan polls and internal Swedish polls) would suggest Loreen will win. Most people suggest that this is a straight two way fight between Loreen and Danny but Melodifestivalen is never that clear cut. I think that Molly Sandén or Thorsten Flinck could emerge as a dark horse. Bookies are largely in line with this view point.

So we will have more on Melodifestivalen this week, but in the mean time we have a little surprise for you which we will unveil during the week. We don't know if you will like it but hopefully you will.

P.S. Vote on our poll for Melodifestivalen on the top left of the blog.

Another Eurovision Entry And Some Semi Final Results

Finland have decided to send Pernilla Karlsson to Eurovision. It is what we would call a "Brave" entry. It lacks something and then something else and then.... Anyway the song is called Nar Jag Blunder. The dancer would suggest that there is something for that you have to be distracted from something.....

Sweden surprised us all by deciding to stop Charlotte Perrelli in her tracks. She is now out of Melodifestivalen. Danny and Lisa went directly to Globen which was surprising for Lisa to get through. However Danny was not anyway surprising. His performance was vocally unsound and would be very difficult to do at ESC. However it is Danny and judging by the audience reaction he will be the one to beat on Saturday 10th.

Estonia and Lithuania also held semi-finals and I have not studied them in enough so do please read about on escXtra

The Winner Normally Comes From Semi-Final 4....really?

So I'm just a little pushed for time this evening on account of the Irish National Final tomorrow [currently working on a personal post about that will be up later].

This year the big ticket match up was putting Charlotte Perrelli and Danny into the same semi-final but anyhow there's eight songs to be reviewed:

Charlotte Perrelli - This was way behind what I had expected from Charlotte. If this was not Charlotte I would say I really like the song but it won't qualify. What is that screen in the middle of the clip for.? The Swedes can be very strange when they vote and are very fickle. So I think we will be meeting Charlotte next week in Ardra Chansen. Grade: B+

OPA - Boring Greek song, not really fit for the Melodifestivalen stage, should come in last place. Grade: D-

Dynazty - Standard rock song on a pop beat. Nothing special in comparision to Death By April. I think this will either go to the final or Andra Chansen [it certainly won't be left behind]. Grade: B

Lotta & Christer - Two big ticket singers in the chessyest song I have heard in a long time. Picture a lump of really hard chesse and then multiply it a million times and you have the song. I still like it though. Grade: C+

Hanna Lindblad - Like her last MF entry this is a little too unorginal and popy to qualify. I still think that it is a reasonable entry but probably will not qualify. Grade: C

Axel Algmark - A strange kind of old style mixes with new style entry but the resulting product is not very impressive. Grade: D-

Lisa Miskovaky - A very good song but one which is unlikely to qualify. It is too dead sounding and lacking anything for the listener to catch onto. Grade: C+

Danny - Suffice to say Danny was the big ticket name for Melodifestivalen this year. His song is far from amazing. I think it is an improvement from In The Club but that might not nessicarly be a good thing. The stage performance clearly has a huge budget but I really hate these over gimmicky performances at Melodifestivalen when other artists don't seem to get such a budget. Grade: B-

So in spite of all of the hype around this semi-final, having heard the 32 songs, Melodifestivalen looks set to boil down to a three way fight between Loreen, Danny and Molly Sandén. I'm also going to toss David Lindgren into the mix as a dark horse.