Structural Problems With The Crystal Arena?

As reported by ESCDaily problems have been found in the construction of the Crystal Hall in Baku. The faults largely lie in the glass of the arena. It is though that the amplification systems needed for the songs in the Crystal Arena could actually shatter the glass. A friend of mine studying Engineering said that being located so close to water puts the structure in danger with high vibrations from an amplification system.

Azerbaijan explained to the they have low building safety standards and really don't see what the problem is 75% of all structures in Baku completed in the last 10 years are still reasonably sound. The EBU is unhappy about this.

It is understood that further tests will be carried out but it is rumored that the EBU have alerted Rome to prepare contingency plans in the event of an emergency. It is understood Rome simply said that the same plans from 1991 will be good in 2012.

Running Order: Winners, Losers and Everything In Between

So this morning we had a slightly delayed draw for the running order having previously been sorted into their semi-finals in January. However while the first draw is useful now that we know all the songs, today's draw allows for much deeper analysis. Before we begin our analysis is based on our running order research.

In the final the only important story was the UK getting the first slot. This is broadly not a good thing but if there was a lot of up tempo songs after it it might have a fair shot at the top 10. Italy won't be over happy with their draw given that they are serious contenders. Like last year though we really can't judge the final without knowing all the songs so we move to the semi-finals.

So in semi-final 1 we have..

1. Montenegro - Really no one seems to have a clue how this will do but it is in a slot that rarely gathers enough to qualify.
2. Iceland - Not a good draw for Jonsi and Greta. Second is not as bad a place as in the final. 
3. Greece - recent history suggests that third is one of the worst places to be draw, maybe Greece will change this.
4. Latvia
5. Albania 
6. Romania - a surprisingly good position mathematically, and being sandwiched between two very different songs will help.
7. Switzerland
8. Belgium 
9. Finland - Logical wildcard choice, but not helped by having Belgium just before.
10. Israel
11. San Marino 
12. Cyprus - 12 is a great placing, statistically the third highest average score in a semi-final.
13. Denmark - Nicely sandwiched between Cyprus and Russia.
14. Russia
15. Hungary
16. Austria 
17. Moldova
18. Ireland - Great placing for Ireland, the average score for the last placed song in a semi-final since 2008 was around 105 points. Being after Moldova also should help Ireland's chances.

Semi Final 2

1. Serbia - Not a great draw for them, as there are many other Balkan ballads in this semi-final.
2. FYR Macedonia
3. Netherlands - Bad draw for them really.
4. Malta 
5. Belarus 
6. Portugal 
7. Ukraine - Wildcard, nice enough slot.
8. Bulgaria
9. Slovenia
10. Croatia
11. Sweden - I don't think the running order will impact this song.
12. Georgia
13. Turkey
14. Estonia
15. Slovakia
16. Norway - Well positioned overall and nicely between a rock song and piano ballad. Great draw for them
17. Bosnia and Herzegovia
18. Lithuania - Not sure if this is a strong closer. Might be the second song not to qualify from last place.
19. 
    

Melodifestivalen 2012: Analysis and Reactions

Last night Melodifestivalen was on. Despite the fairly vast amount of criticism of the final this year, very few people actually put their money where their mouth was and watch Romania. 

So what happened? Well, all songs were performed and voted on. Loreen won with her great song Euphoria. So let's take a look at how Sweden voted and what the pattern might tell us about Melodifestivalen.

Songs and Success

While the winner of Melodifestivalen was pretty much certain and Danny came in second as expected. However the next few placings were surprising. David and Ulrik tied for third place. They were a bit ahead of where they were expected to be. The big surprise in my view was the poor showing by Molly Sanden and Lisa Miskovsky. 

How does Sweden vote?

Sweden use the same method to calculate the winner as Denmark. Juries around Europe award points to their favourite songs using a standard set of points (1,2,4,6,8,10,12). This means that one jury will award 1+2+4+6+8+10+12= 43 points. Eleven Juries award 11 x 43 = 473 points. The Public then award their own set of points 473 points. This is broken down based on the percentage of televotes it receives. So a song that gets 10% of the televotes gets 10% x 473 = 47.3 points. This then rounded to the nearest whole number.

This method was used last year but last year the juries did not have a clear winner. (Sanna, Eric and Danny were within five points of one another.) However as Eric was the winner of the televoting by a good margin (8.8%) he received 42 points more than Danny. 

Voting Patterns 

An interesting pattern emerged in the televoting. The table shows how much of the televote the top two songs took. The table beside them shows the top two in last years scoring. The top two this year took an unprecedented amount of the votes.

As a result of the 55% taken by Loreen and Danny there was a lot less votes than last year to share out among the others. This lead to the jury having much more say in the outcome of the 3rd-10th place rankings. For example Molly Sandén came second last on the televote but yet had a good margin in the jury vote. Despite a 5th place from the juries she came 5th overall. 

How did the juries vote in percentage terms? Well we converted the jury vote i.e. expressed it as a percentage of 473 points. Comparing it with the public percentages with jury percentages also helps to understand how voting worked. N.B. - Series 1 is jury votes, series 2 is public votes. (I'm not an amzing Excel wizard, sorry).

The other notable thing is that Loreen won the contest with a record number of votes in absolute terms. She pulled in a massive 670,551 votes which according to this SVT article is a record. The article is well worth a read.

Reactions

Eurovision fans are broadly happy with Swedens result and there is widespread recognition of Loreen as an exceptional artist even if she was not everyone's favourite. A number of older fans think that this is a bad choice for Sweden comparing Loreen with Kati Wolf last year who did well on fan polls but came 22nd in the final. I think people who argue that may be slightly out of touch with Eurovision Music - but that's just an opinion. However: Let the record show I believed on the 11th March 2012 I believed that Loreen was the most likely to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2012

In Sweden the fact that Loreen won seems to be rather popular but there is a couple of juicy stories from Melodifestivalen for those of us who like to take a peak at the Daily Mail.

Bjorn Ranelid has stated that only one Swedish writer wished him good luck in Melodifestivalen. Bjorn states that he now knows who his friends are and that Swedish writers have show their true colours (That's pretty cold - Ed.)

Danny has decided to be a sore loser and ran from the "green room/space" before Loreen could do a reprise. He also didn't take part in the after parties. He just went home to his girlfriends house. Today he said that Sweden had made a bad decision to send a schlager entry with Loreen. (And sorry Danny could you clarify What was your song then?) Anyway a couple of artists in Sweden have come out to say that they feel sorry for him and that they understand how much he wanted it. We just think that the better song won. Hard Lucj Danny. Well Done Loreen.

And Finally....

Of all the surprising things to come Melodifestivalen the amazing Sarah Dawn Finer Lynda Woodruff went down a storm with fans (while also poking the Brits, which we welcome.) Huge well done to Sarah for her hilarious piece. 

The Race To Eurovision Continues

As we look across the Atlantic and see the GOP race slowly getting into the swing of things I think in a similar way Europe has started to select its songs for Eurovision.

Tonight saw Cyprus pick A Song For Ivi. To no ones surprise they picked La La Love.

I think that the decision to not perform the songs live will impact on how Ivi is perceived by fans. When her songs first appeared online they were a breath of fresh air in a slow starting National Final season. Now they seemed just a little average.

In other news the EBU have unveiled their updated website for 2012, we quite like it, you can visit it here.
We are aware that the draw also was today and I will publish my reaction to that later this evening.

So where are we now?

Selections Completed: 4/43
Selections in progress: 5/38 (remaining)
Next Song due to be selected/revealed: France -29th January.

We really now are in the thick of national finals season. We expect that every week we will now see another song picked.

Reaction to Latvian Semi-Final and some other points

So after a relatively uninteresting semi-final, but a fun night on twitter (Thanks to all), we have 5 songs out of Eirodziesma. The qualifiers were good with the exception of Andris Abelite who I thought was below par. I think PeR are the ones to watch from this semi-final. They came second with the juries, which means that they could do well. However I would think the song is over repetitive. 

The big disappointment for me was Laura Bicane and Romans Sladzis folk music which surprised me by how good it was. Naturally I was pleased to see Ruta Duduma make it through.

In other news.....

We have not got a list of participates from the EBU yet and we look forward to see if Armenia is on it. I think it is delayed because the EBU doesn't want politics dragged into Eurovision but a draw is expected around 16th January so we will be keeping a close eye on that.


A campaign video has been launched for Rick Santorum Nickolas Sarkozy Jedward? We are unashamedly supporting Jedward for Eurovision  and we think this is just great.

Human Rights and Azerbaijan

I have often said in the lead up to the contest that Azerbaijan should never be completely trusted on their human rights record. The EBU has seemingly failed in this. A report by the BBC shows the human cost of Eurovision and it is a cost that every fan must bear in mind. According to their report hundreds of people will be forced to leave their homes so as they can be removed ahead of the construction of the contest venue. This has lead to the president of OGAE Denmark calling for Denmark to boycott ESC 2012. There is a claim that the demolitions have nothing to do with the contest and if this is the case there is nothing the EBU can do.

Therefore I am calling for a full investigation (included onsite inspection) by the European Broadcasting Union (Reference Group) to ascertain whether the construction of the venue or infrastructure for the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 is connected to the demolition of up to 65 homes located near the proposed site for the contest. If the findings of the report are true the EBU should demand alternative arrangements be put in place. The EBU should be prepared to drop Azerbaijan as the host country if these human rights violations or any other human rights issue comes to light.