Editorial: Looking Forward To Eurovision 2012 - One Last Time

Yes after one amazing year its that time again. In about 8 hours time the first act will take to the stage in Baku to rehearse for Eurovision. In about 9 hours time the first of the videos will begin to appear and Eurovision 2012 can really begin. This is the bit about Eurovision that sets fans apart. This week while the rest of Europe tunes into something else, perhaps unaware that Eurovision is on, the contest is being fought over by TV people from all over Europe desperately trying to get the mix of everything right on stage. Those of us who follow this closely will get a much better understanding of everything that makes Eurovision go around. 

We've been through it all, the good, the bad, Bjorn Ranelid. And here we are. I am so excited. Despite what my friends might say about Eurovision tonight is like Christmas Eve for me. Since late yesterday tweets, reports and blog posts have been slowly trickling through from Baku about the city and the Crystal Arena itself. I really look forward to hearing from all the fans out there about their opinions of the contest. So maybe I'm not at the contest but at this stage I'm just enjoying the moment of it. I love the constant stream of reports from the venue about how rehearsals are going and I look forward to the occasional podcast. For me this week is something that should be savoured rather than looked over in favour of live shows. I'm not entirely sure exactly what I will have to say tomorrow but do drop into the blog and find out.

I am a small voice in Eurovision media. However while I am aware that some of you think that I do a fairly reasonable job here I will point out that I am only human, and I most certainly cannot see the future. Nothing that I say is any more likely to occur than what any other good Eurovision fan might say. Think independently about Eurovision, don't just listen to one voice. Form your own opinion. Make it as informed as you see fit. Eurovision fandom is build on opinions. You are always welcome to share them with us too.

This time fortnight we will be well into the voting in the grand final. That is a great sentence to be able to write when your a Eurovision fan,
I wish all the very best over the next two weeks.
With Love,
Seán x

Another Look At The Betting Odds

In the last two weeks we have looked at the odds for Eurovision 2012 in the semi-finals but today we will now look at the odds overall. I'm using PaddyPower for this because they are fairly large (and accurate) and oddschecker is not always accurate. 

Unsurprisingly Sweden is up front by a long chalk. 2.25/1 is the odds, I'm holding out til rehersals until I put a bet on Sweden as I suspect the odds will start to widen at that point. In second are Russia and Italy on 7/1, which is more like the kind of odds I'd expect at this point of the year. I think both of these entries are risky and could conceivably drop much lower than this on the night. They'll still be on the left of the scoreboard though. Serbia is a far safer bet, and aside from Sweden the only country that I am pretty sure will be in the top 10. PaddyPower allows you to bet each way on four places. I'm not sure that Serbia will be one of these. 

Then we move out a little to 14/1 in here we have: Denmark, UK and Ireland. There can be little surprise that Ireland is doing well with an Irish bookmaker. Denmark is about right at 14/1, I think they might not break last years 5th place but top 10 is well within the reach of Soluna Samay. The UK might be a little overhyped given the risk could be associated with Engelbert's performance but also [far more importantly], the UK has a fairly poor running order position.

Next we come to Spain on 18/1 which is no surprise given that Pastora Soler is an excellent performer with a pretty strong song. I actually think that the odds are a poor reflection of this song, I don't expect that it will rip forward into the top 3, but given the songs strength and good running order, I'd say that top 10 should be with in reach. At 20/1 is Germany, which I cannot see making the Top 10 let alone winning and Turkey. Turkey is interesting because reports from Netherlands Eurovision party were not good, but I will await further reports from Baku before I decide what to make of it.

Iceland is at 22/1, which some might argue is a good bet, then Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Norway are at 25/1. Norway might also be a good bet, Romania is pretty accurate but Greece and Cyprus look a bit a ahead of themselves, particularly Cyprus. Then there is a substantial gap to Azerbaijan at 40/1. To be honest it's a poor song but Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan and they will leave a mark on the scoreboard no matter what. Being the hosts will also help. Then at 50/1 are Slovenia, Estonia and Netherlands. Netherlands are the odd men out here. I think this might be caused by a couple of fans putting on money but we shall see.

I shall refrain from going beyond here as to do so would be pointless, suffice to say I don't think that the others have much of a fighting chance.

Don't Cast Jedward Aside Yet

While I am currently in a total panic to finish a college project, I like most other Irish Eurovision fans spotted an article in today's Irish Independent, pointing to the download success that Jedward are having with their single across Europe. I also find Jedward fans account for a good number of my website hits, so I do like to keep them informed.

Many Eurovision fans have been quick to point out that Jedward's song is not as good as last years. I am inclined to agree with them, but that is only by my own music tastes. In reality Jedwards song, though generic, is a song that will appeal to their fans and people in their target base. Many people have pointed out that their song is like something One Direction would do. But they say this as if it is a bad thing. Songs such as Waterline or Popular (Sweden, 2011) or Stay (Norway, 2012), may not be very popular with Eurovision fans but as Eric Saade showed us last year songs (and performances) can never be completely written off at Eurovision. In fact despite huge negativity around his performance, Eric managed to come 3rd and lost the televote by only two points.

While there is a great standard in this years Eurovision, Jedward will ultimately stand out. Why wouldn't they? The news today that they are doing well across Europe shows their potential in Eurovision. The only other song to be doing well in charts is Euphoria by Loreen, who I think will win Eurovision this year. [Sorry Jedward fans]. The real acid test is how well they do in charts overall [i.e. not just download charts], however Ireland should be delighted by this news. It really does undermine the argument that they have a weak song, if you don't accept that then you have to accept it shows the shear number of Jedward fans already out there.

Finally, for the many Jedward fans who did not follow Eurovision last year. Those who did will remember that it wasn't until the rehearsals started that Jedward began to gain momentum. I think there has been a bigger reaction so far this year but there is still a long way to grow. Even though it has been ongoing for a long time, the race to win Eurovision has a long. long way to go yet.

Eurovision 2012: A Forward

Now that the Heads of Delegations meeting is over, we finally have all of the songs and we now know the running order. We now enter the period when Eurovision fans have nothing to do other than speculate about entries. Happily this will only last for another 60 days when the first semi-final takes place. This is often an interesting period but before we enter into it is time to take look at the contest this year on a Macro level.

Personally, I don’t have a favourite contest of the last five or six years. Personally I thought that 2010 was probably the strongest year of late. I really didn’t love many of the songs last year (except maybe Denmark, Italy and Ireland) and for me it was a poor contest that was won by having a good position in the running order rather than an amazing song.

I think that this year has quite a lot to offer, particularly semi-final 1 which has a large number of very different songs and performers, everything from Finland to Iceland to Austria. Semi-final 2 is a bit more traditional with a great variety of ballads, for those of you enjoy them. Never fear though ballad haters Loreen, Tooji and Can Bonomo are there for you enjoyment.

Semi-final 1 has rather interesting songs and it should be watched closely how this is voted on. Denmark, Iceland, Finland and Belgium seem the most jury friendly while songs such as Austria and Russia may not have been seen in the contest before but might still score well. Semi-final 1 certainly looks to have the better variety of songs and in my view should have more entertainment value for ordinary viewers. Denmark seems like the most likely to win I think that the broad appeal to public and juries will lift this one. Denmark should also be helped by jury and public support.

I have many Jedward fans that follow the blog and many have looked for my reaction to how is Ireland going to do. I will write up a separate piece on Jedward later this week when I know the running order but to generalise, I think Jedward will qualify for the final.

Semi-final 2 should be a far more unpredictable affair. I suspect like semi-final 1 last year it will appear to be just a formality and then go surprisingly on the night.

Finally a word of caution……… Every year fans make huge mistakes about the contest. Sometimes there is a surprise performance on the night of the final or sometimes we just didn’t read the music right. Either way I believe that approaching predictions with an open, inquiring mind and a bit of radical scepticism is needed to accurately make predictions. Don’t believe all the fan polls or every commentator. Very few will get it exactly right.

Also just to say now (while I’m on this rant) that there is a tendency of fans to use these two months to allow songs to be built up over time until a general consensus is reached. This then flops on the night. Songs like Sweden 2008, Israel 2010 and France 2011 all flopped from being early favourites to midtable results because fans shut out all the outside noises and didn’t listen to the signs enough.

I think that this year is definitely an improvement on last year and without a doubt I love a Eurovision with lots of genres. Really this is the fairest way to have it. This ensures that the music will not be rejected as all being Eastern European or Schlager.

But regardless of your taste I hope you find the same enjoyment, from the best eight hours of television a year, that you do every year.

“Love and hate are strong words but at Eurovision they sometimes can be necessary ones”

 – Seán, Editor, The Best Eurovision Blog.

Now that the Heads of Delegations meeting is over, we finally have all of the songs and we now know the running order. We now enter the period when Eurovision fans have nothing to do other than speculate about entries. Happily this will only last for another 60 days when the first semi-final takes place. This is often an interesting period but before we enter into it is time to take look at the contest this year on a Macro level.

Personally, I don’t have a favourite contest of the last five or six years. Personally I thought that 2010 was probably the strongest year of late. I really didn’t love many of the songs last year (except maybe Denmark, Italy and Ireland) and for me it was a poor contest that was won by having a good position in the running order rather than an amazing song.

I think that this year has quite a lot to offer, particularly semi-final 1 which has a large number of very different songs and performers, everything from Finland to Iceland to Austria. Semi-final 2 is a bit more traditional with a great variety of ballads, for those of you enjoy them. Never fear though ballad haters Loreen, Tooji and Can Bonomo are there for you enjoyment.

Semi-final 1 has rather interesting songs and it should be watched closely how this is voted on. Denmark, Iceland, Finland and Belgium seem the most jury friendly while songs such as Austria and Russia may not have been seen in the contest before but might still score well. Semi-final 1 certainly looks to have the better variety of songs and in my view should have more entertainment value for ordinary viewers. Denmark seems like the most likely to win I think that the broad appeal to public and juries will lift this one. Denmark should also be helped by jury and public support.

I have many Jedward fans that follow the blog and many have looked for my reaction to how is Ireland going to do. I will write up a separate piece on Jedward later this week when I know the running order but to generalise, I think Jedward will qualify for the final.

Semi-final 2 should be a far more unpredictable affair. I suspect like semi-final 1 last year it will appear to be just a formality and then go surprisingly on the night.

Finally a word of caution……… Every year fans make huge mistakes about the contest. Sometimes there is a surprise performance on the night of the final or sometimes we just didn’t read the music right. Either way I believe that approaching predictions with an open, inquiring mind and a bit of radical scepticism is needed to accurately make predictions. Don’t believe all the fan polls or every commentator. Very few will get it exactly right.

Also just to say now (while I’m on this rant) that there is a tendency of fans to use these two months to allow songs to be built up over time until a general consensus is reached. This then flops on the night. Songs like Sweden 2008, Israel 2010 and France 2011 all flopped from being early favourites to midtable results because fans shut out all the outside noises and didn’t listen to the signs enough.

I think that this year is definitely an improvement on last year and without a doubt I love a Eurovision with lots of genres. Really this is the fairest way to have it. This ensures that the music will not be rejected as all being Eastern European or Schlager.

But regardless of your taste I hope you find the same enjoyment, from the best eight hours of television a year, that you do every year.

“Love and hate are strong words but at Eurovision they sometimes can be necessary ones”

 – Seán, Editor, The Best Eurovision Blog.

The Balkan Problem

I meant to publish this last night but was so tired I could not judge my writing. The idea here is purely hypothetical but has been on my mind since the semi-final draw.

Since the running order draw many fans have pointed out that the toughest semi-final by far this year is semi-final 2. This is largely caused by the presence of FYR Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia all being together in the one semi-final. This has lead fans to believe that anything up to all five of these countries could make it through to the final.

But is that a true assumption? Let's just think about it and cast the critical eye over the Balkans so far in 2012. Serbia has successfully managed to convince Zeljko Joksimovic to go to Eurovision for them. Looking at the block of countries this will be one to beat, it's sure to be strong and will take a good chunk of the Balkan 12 points. So let's say that they take 46 of 48 points [i.e. 3 12's; 1 10]. This leaves them with in easy reach of the 62 points which is about what is needed to get you into the final. It is also very likely that Serbia will soak up a huge amount of Jury votes for Balkan songs.

But what about the next four songs. Well to start we have not heard B+H's song yet but I would bet we are dealing with a fairly normal Balkan ballad again sung by a female [Maya Saar]. The issue here is that far to many of these songs are being sung by females. The three picked so far are all sung by females. All of the are roughly of the same style and standard. This is where we hit the problems. This semi-final looks set to have a vast number of Balkan songs which is largely unprecedented in terms of the less than 20 songs semi-finals.

So within the Balkan block you will have some disagreement about which country to vote for. Serbia will soak up a huge amount of televotes. This in turn leaves very few to play with. There may not be very many people willing to back a balkan ballad. Which could lead to a disarray in the semi-final. So the result may not be very predictable. Combine this with jury votes which may further and scatter Balkan block votes [at least it cannot strengthen this] which could see countries not getting neighbourly votes.

So what if Balkan's don't win in the Balkan's? Well for the four other songs this is very likely. Assuming that Serbia soak up the amount described earlier and say one song picking up most of the higher places then we have another Balkan on 40 [a 12, two 10's and an 8] this leaves only about 62 points swirling around for the remaining three. On a Europe wide basis it is difficult though not impossible for to believe that with few points they could make it in. The trouble once again is that they will only have some jury and public voters who will vote for Balkan music. These votes will be split that it will be difficult for these rather difficult songs to make it through to ESC final. If the public and jury do not agree then the problems faced do not get smaller. The jury has considerable power to reduce the impact of neighbourly voting. So with two components it is likely that the number of points may fall. And if less points stay within the Balkans then we could be about to see a very interesting semi-final.

Manifesto

As promised I found WiFi (somewhere) so here our ideas. This piece was meant to be about the more surreal aspects of Eurovision and my more mad ideas. However it lead to the development of many other ideas.

Should the UK send the Christmas no. 1 to ESC?
This question is raised given that the earliest a song may be published is now 1st September. So might we see the military wives at the ESC. This might not be possible if no.1 is an x factor winner.
This also could be a problem given the national selection rules due to come in next year. Perhaps, we could have the highest placed original song from the charts at christmas.

Return of the orchestra

I know that not every fan is not hung up about the return of the orchestra. However I believe that the orchestra could return. The main reason that this is opposed is because of the number of songs the orchestra would have to learn. However my solution is to have one orchestra for the first semi final and a different one for the second. Then at the final both orchestras would play. This would have been a problem when ESC was in smaller venues, but now when you are looking at over 20000 seating venues this really wouldn't matter.