Another Look At The Betting Odds

In the last two weeks we have looked at the odds for Eurovision 2012 in the semi-finals but today we will now look at the odds overall. I'm using PaddyPower for this because they are fairly large (and accurate) and oddschecker is not always accurate. 

Unsurprisingly Sweden is up front by a long chalk. 2.25/1 is the odds, I'm holding out til rehersals until I put a bet on Sweden as I suspect the odds will start to widen at that point. In second are Russia and Italy on 7/1, which is more like the kind of odds I'd expect at this point of the year. I think both of these entries are risky and could conceivably drop much lower than this on the night. They'll still be on the left of the scoreboard though. Serbia is a far safer bet, and aside from Sweden the only country that I am pretty sure will be in the top 10. PaddyPower allows you to bet each way on four places. I'm not sure that Serbia will be one of these. 

Then we move out a little to 14/1 in here we have: Denmark, UK and Ireland. There can be little surprise that Ireland is doing well with an Irish bookmaker. Denmark is about right at 14/1, I think they might not break last years 5th place but top 10 is well within the reach of Soluna Samay. The UK might be a little overhyped given the risk could be associated with Engelbert's performance but also [far more importantly], the UK has a fairly poor running order position.

Next we come to Spain on 18/1 which is no surprise given that Pastora Soler is an excellent performer with a pretty strong song. I actually think that the odds are a poor reflection of this song, I don't expect that it will rip forward into the top 3, but given the songs strength and good running order, I'd say that top 10 should be with in reach. At 20/1 is Germany, which I cannot see making the Top 10 let alone winning and Turkey. Turkey is interesting because reports from Netherlands Eurovision party were not good, but I will await further reports from Baku before I decide what to make of it.

Iceland is at 22/1, which some might argue is a good bet, then Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Norway are at 25/1. Norway might also be a good bet, Romania is pretty accurate but Greece and Cyprus look a bit a ahead of themselves, particularly Cyprus. Then there is a substantial gap to Azerbaijan at 40/1. To be honest it's a poor song but Azerbaijan are Azerbaijan and they will leave a mark on the scoreboard no matter what. Being the hosts will also help. Then at 50/1 are Slovenia, Estonia and Netherlands. Netherlands are the odd men out here. I think this might be caused by a couple of fans putting on money but we shall see.

I shall refrain from going beyond here as to do so would be pointless, suffice to say I don't think that the others have much of a fighting chance.

The Odds: Semi-Final 2

This year semi-final two has been definitely the less talked about this year. Despite this fact I think that the more likely winners of the whole contest are going to come from semi-final.

So how does semi 2 look. There are two broad appeal pop songs from Norway and Sweden. It is very likely that they will take two spots in the final. No surprises then that the three most likely songs to proceed to the final are Serbia, Sweden and Norway. Moving on then we have Bosnia, who may not have an amazing song put have   a great spot in the running order. Then there's Turkey who will surely qualify to the final.

So then we move into shakier parts of this semi-final Estonia are next in the bookies odds and I think that that is a very mean price for Estonia. I am not trying to say that I don't like it I just don't think that Estonia are certain qualifiers.

Slovenia is in 8th position which I think is a generous price for Eva Boto as I think her song is very good as a Balkan ballad. Belarus is 9th position and I am not sure if this is a qualifier, I think that the disco version is very strong but it looks like a non-qualifier to me.

The two songs that I think is Portugal and Lithuania. I don't think that Lithuania is amazing but it is hard to imagine that a last slot song would not qualify. I think that Portugal has one of the strongest compositions this year. Even though this is a tough semi-final for ballads and Portugal has many things going against it, I think this could be the surprise qualifier.

Time To Look At The Odds

So we're currently in the depths of the dry period. Those who have survived this month can look forward to another few weeks sitting in a corner, rocking back and forth listening Mirakel over and over again. In the meantime I will endure to continue here.

So I have been waiting for a while for the semi-final 1 odds to settle down and now that they have let's see what they are saying. Denmark and Iceland are favourites to qualify, win Denmark and Russia favourites to win the semi. I think that Iceland is surprisingly low odds for a second position in the running order.

Then we have Russia, Romania, Greece and Ireland are then fairly close together. I think that all of these are quite likely to qualify.

Next up we have Cyprus, Moldova, and Albania. I'm not sure that Cyprus is likely to qualify but I think that juries will push Albania into the final. If you look at yesterday's post I think Moldova have only a 50/50 chance of qualifying.

Next up are the marginals these are Israel, Switzerland and Finland are for all going to be chasing for the last spots. I think juries will see the artistic quality behind the Israeli entry and push it into the final.

Here We Go Again: The Odds Check

The good people over at Nicerodds have been good enough to try to tap into the Eurovision fan market by putting together the odds from many Irish, UK and Nordic bookmakers. Many of the countries that have not even detailed about their national final yet are given odds but we are not going to consider most of them yet as it just reflects a countries historic strength at Eurovision.

• Going first to Austria where unsurprisingly Conchita Wurst the favorite to win, with (surprisingly) 3 punkt 5 and Trackshittaz lagging behind. I wouldn't be  surprised if there was a surprise winner in Austria but Conchita and Trackshittaz would be good in Baku.
• Moving North to Germany where we see Roman Lob is the Hot favourite to win, given that he seems to be winning the qualifiers so far this is not surprising. It will most likely be him in Baku, and I do actually need to see him as I have not seen him performing yet.
• Moving further north again to Sweden where Youngblood and Molly Sandén are favourites to progress from semi-final 3 but after yesterday it is clear we need to see the songs first. In terms of the winner of Melodifestivalen 2012 
• So what about ESC? Sweden somewhat surprisingly are riding upfront possibly reflecting the strength of Melodifestivalen 2012. Serbia follows probably because of Zelio Zehomsomethingorother. We will have to hear his song first though. Otherwise the usual suspects are there, Azerbaijan, Armenia etc. Interestingly Ireland is quite high - 14/1 (reflecting Jedward being in our national final). Of the songs picked Norway is 14/1 to win with Denmark behind on 18/1 however one bookie is only offering 7/1 on Denmark making them the clear favorites at this early stage. Cyprus is 25/1. France, despite being well up on fan lists (not mine) is 50/1. The longest odds of a currently picked song is Malta on 130/1.

UPD: Returning to the odds!

Since my last post there have been some changes to the odds. Ireland has gone from 33/1 to 25/1 which is odd given that we have the same amount of information as before.

Now that we have heard all the songs from Norway (stats based on four bookmakers):
Nora Foss Al-Jabri is the favorite to win the first semi with 3 bookies putting her on favorite. However there is huge differences in what is to come second. The Carburtores and Lise Stokke are favorites to take the second slot with Kim and Reidun coming in after as dark horses.

There is huge spread in the final. Plumbo are the hot favorites to win with Reidun, Rikke Normann and The Canoes lagging behind.

Today we got the odds from Lativa, they confirm what I expected from the start: Mad Show Boys are the favorites (the hot favorites at that) and PeR are just behind, followed by Paula Dukure (all are under 3/1). After that there is a gap starting with Anmary (5/1) to Ruta Dudama (19/1).

Over in Denmark the song Venter (Christian and Patrik) is leading the odds with Jesper Nohrstedt is in second. Sonuna and Aya are in joint third (roughly). Forever I B Young is in last place.

A Quick Look At The Odds

Just to break from the mundane day-to-day reaction and reviews today we're going to look at the odds around Eurovision.

Currently the odds cannot be properly trusted because not enough countries have chosen. Notwithstanding this fact looking at the odds currently Greece and Russia are the favorites at 7/1. (Which is still very high). Other high counties: Italy is only 9/1 which, given their selection process seems a little strange, nevertheless, I would not expect an Italian win this year. Cyprus are 11/1 which reflects the strength of their national final songs this year. Denmark who I think has a good chance at winning this year is still back on 16/1, which could be a good bet.

Moving further down the list Spain and Ireland are 33/1 which doesn't reflect their possibilities. Of the two songs picked so far Albania is 41/1 and Switzerland is 25/1.

Looking at Melodifestivalen 2012 according to the odds (without hearing the songs): The Moniker is the favorite to win the first semi-final. Timoteij are favorites to win the second semi-final, Youngblood in the third and Danny Saucedo is the favorite for the fourth semi-final and favorite to win the whole competition. Strangely Ulrik Munther is second favorite to win outright (11/2)  and Charlotte Perrelli is 11/1.

Looking at DMGP 2012, Christian Bons and Patrick Isakson are favorites to win outright, with Aya (singing a song by the writers of Satellite) is second favorite.